Japan cannot let its guard down… An authority on U.S.-Korea relations makes an urgent prediction: “The day when South Korea will be abandoned by Trump.

What will happen to the world and Japan?
Reading the thoughts of the new U.S. President, who has been doing whatever he wants from his first day in office.

Withdrawal from the World Health Organization, declaration of a state of emergency on the southern border, withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a framework to combat global warming, and elimination of diversity policies – President Donald Trump (78) has issued a series of executive orders from his first day in office. He has been confusing the world.

Defense Secretary James Mattis (74) and other political professionals who had been lax in the first Trump administration have left, and the people around him are now all yes-men. Emanuel Pastorich, 60, says there are “three keys to predicting” where the second administration, which has no brakes, is headed.

A graduate of Yale University, Pastorich studied at Seoul National University and the Graduate School of the University of Tokyo, and taught at the University of Illinois and George Washington University before becoming the director of the think tank Asia Institute. Pastrich, an authority on U.S.-Korea relations who made recommendations on diplomacy to the Park Geun-hye administration, described the “three keys″ as “millionaires such as Elon Musk, 53, Christian fundamentalists and Zionists (supporters of the movement to rebuild a Jewish national base in Palestine), the United States as one withIsraeli military-industrial complex,” he said.

‘All of these are major supporters of Mr. Trump. Mr. Musk, who supported Mr. Trump in the presidential election and dished out $1 million daily, is now the head of the ‘Ministry of Government Efficiency,’ which is vague about what it does. The aim is to have Mr. Musk and other billionaires involved in the AI business create a government with AI at the top, and as soon as he took office, he issued a presidential decree deregulating AI and decided to invest heavily in it.”

President Trump’s characteristic is to “turn the tables” by issuing an executive order that postpones the enforcement of the TikTok restriction law, which was proposed by the first administration and finally took effect, but according to Pastorich, “There is a reason why he changes his assertions so often.

Pastorich says, “It’s because the three keys, or Trump’s three biggest supporters, don’t agree on what he stands for. For example, Christian fundamentalists call LGBT a ″morality-breaking crisis,″ but there are LGBTs in the Trump camp, including billionaire supporters such as investor Peter Thiel, 57, who works closely with Israeli IT contractors, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, 62.”

The biggest issue facing Japan in the new administration is security. The neighbors are becoming noisy, with Russian President Vladimir Putin (72) sending an autumn wave, saying, “If Trump had won the ’20 presidential election, the invasion of Ukraine would not have happened,” and President Trump sending a love call to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (41), saying he intends to meet with him.

His pro-North Korea remarks would be a pressure on South Korea.” In fact, Trump is close to President Yun Seong-yeol (64). His emphasis on social networking sites and YouTube, as well as his method of sympathizing with conspiracy theories, is very Trump-like.

Although President Yun has been indicted for civil disorder, “It is conceivable that in the near future President Trump will praise ″Yun is a hero″ and demand that he be released, keeping him as an administration that he values even more than Ukraine,” Pastrich said of the surprising scenario.

“Trump’s greatest adversary is China. He has a vision of ″building a siege against China with South Korea, Russia, and Japan.”

What is frightening is that for Trump, security is only one of his bargaining chips. In an interview with Bloomberg last year, he said, “If I were president, South Korea would pay billions of dollars more each year for U.S. bases in the country.

If he sees no benefit, he would pull back U.S. forces in South Korea.” In fact, the first administration was on the verge of pulling out.

If there is no use for them, Pastrich said, they will abandon South Korea.

And it is the same for Japan, which faces the risk of a Taiwan contingency. If Trump sees no benefit, he could easily back down from his hard line on China.

The Impact of Blocking the US Steel Takeover

Pastorich described as “shocking” the U.S. government’s blocking of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel.

Japan had bought so many U.S.-made weapons and had been so loyal to Washington’s foreign policy. However, the subsequent moves by the Japanese government are commendable.

On January 15, following the ″US Steel Shock,″ LDP Secretary General Yutaka Moriyama (79) and Komeito Secretary General Makoto Nishida (62) met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang (65). This is the first “strategic” dialogue since the administration of Yukio Hatoyama, which was not possible under the administration of Shinzo Abe, who was cautious about relations with China.

Japan also maintains relations with Iran, which the U.S. considers a virtual enemy. Even in the war in Ukraine, Japan provided financial assistance but not military cooperation. There are different opinions, but they are well balanced.”

For President Trump, diplomacy is a “deal. If he shows any room for maneuver, he loses.

From the February 14, 2025 issue of FRIDAY