Yamaguchi-gumi Split 2025: The Final Chapter

His determination to end the divisional war is evident

“The boss is coming in!”

In mid-December last year, under the watchful eyes of a large gathering of Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi members, leader Shinobu Tsukasa (82) made his appearance. The occasion was the organization’s annual year-end meeting, held at the headquarters of a secondary group in Hamamatsu, Shizuoka Prefecture. With all direct affiliates in attendance, the 2025 organizational policy once again upheld the principle of “Harmony and Unity” for the ninth consecutive year. This reflects Tsukasa’s firm determination to bring an end to the prolonged split conflict. Indeed, the serious expression he bore at the event signaled his unwavering resolve.

The Yamaguchi-gumi Split Conflict, ongoing since August 2015, saw further bloodshed last year. The number of violent incidents has now exceeded 100, with over 50 casualties between the Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi and the Kobe Yamaguchi-gumi factions.

Take a look at the timeline below, summarizing seven major incidents that occurred in 2024. As the conflict drags on, the battleground has become increasingly chaotic. The Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi is currently designated under a special conflict order alongside not only the Kobe Yamaguchi-gumi but also two groups that split from it—Kizuna-kai and Ikeda-gumi. Journalist Atsushi Mizoguchi, an expert on organized crime, reflects on the most notable events of last year.

“The arrest of Kizuna-kai’s Wakagashira, Seiki Kanazawa, in February last year marked a turning point.  Shigeki Kanazawa was a hitman suspected of murdering a leader of a Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi core affiliate, the Kodo-kai, in April 2023. He was considered one of the major threats to the Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi.

With this destabilizing factor removed, another significant development occurred on October 31, when Nakata Koji, the leader of the Yamaguchi-gumi affiliate Yamaken-gumi, was acquitted. Nakata had been on trial for allegedly launching a gun attack on a rival faction member in 2019. Now that Nakata is back on the streets, it is likely that the morale of Yamaken-gumi members has been boosted to some extent.”

The Yamaken-gumi is a prestigious yakuza faction known by all in the underworld. As rival organizations decline, the Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi is gaining momentum with influential figures returning to its ranks.

Last year saw two fatal shooting incidents. In January, at a Starbucks in Ehime Prefecture, the Wakagashira of the Ikeda-gumi shot and killed a man in his 40s who had previously been affiliated with a Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi sub-group. The brutal daylight execution sent shockwaves across Japan.

Furthermore, in September, a meticulously planned shooting took place in Miyazaki Prefecture.

“A 60-year-old member of the Kodokai—the faction from which both Kumicho Tsukasa and Wakagashira Takayama Seiji (77) hail—opened fire at an Ikeda-gumi-affiliated office, killing a senior member. The shooter had disguised himself as a delivery worker to approach the office, demonstrating a high level of planning.

This attack is believed to be retaliation for the 2023 murder of a Kodokai-affiliated leader by Kizuna-kai’s Wakagashira, Kanazawa. Reports suggest that the Ikeda-gumi paid Kizuna-kai to carry out the assassination, leading to this counterattack,” said a journalist well-versed in Yamaguchi-gumi affairs.

After a bloody 2024, the Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi is entering a crucial year. August will mark a full decade since the factional conflict began, as well as the 20th anniversary of Tsukasa’s leadership.

The entangled motives of key figures

Mizoguchi analyzes the situation, stating, “The time has come to end the conflict.”

“This is an unprecedented ten-year-long conflict in the history of Japanese organized crime. It must be brought to an end at any cost. During the Osaka War in the late 1970s, the Yamaguchi-gumi unilaterally summoned the media for a press conference and forcibly declared an end to the war without securing the enemy’s surrender. A similar approach could be taken this time. I believe there is a possibility that they will declare the end of the conflict within this year.”

In fact, there are indications that Boss Tsukasa and Deputy Boss Takayama are maneuvering with the end of the conflict in mind.

“Deputy Boss Takayama likely has a strong desire to further consolidate the control of the Kodokai, his and Boss Tsukasa’s home faction, and to pass the Yamaguchi-gumi’s authority to the next generation. If the opportunity arises, he may assume a senior advisory position while handing over the role of deputy boss to Takeuchi Teruaki (64), the current Kodokai president and a deputy boss assistant. By doing so, they can continue and strengthen the Tsukasa-led regime while ensuring that a trusted figure succeeds as the seventh-generation leader.”

There was even a personnel move last year that hinted at this strategy. “One of Takayama’s personal secretaries was promoted to deputy boss assistant. This was undoubtedly aimed at consolidating the organization’s foundation. Additionally, at the year-end mochi-pounding event, Boss Tsukasa appeared before the media, demonstrating his continued presence. As the supreme leader for life, it is likely that Takayama will devote himself to maintaining the sixth-generation regime in alignment with Boss Tsukasa’s will,” the journalist stated.

The Sixth-Generation Yamaguchi-gumi is actively restructuring its organization, including introducing a presidential system in some subordinate groups and appointing new leaders.

In stark contrast, Kobe Yamaguchi-gumi leader Inoue remains silent. Former Yamaguchi-gumi-affiliated yakuza boss and current NPO director Satoru Takegaki speculates about Inoue’s mindset.

“I spoke with Inoue over the phone about two years ago, and he sounded as lively as ever. Though he has some chronic illnesses, I’ve heard he’s still in good health. However, that doesn’t mean he has the will to fight. At the same time, he has no intention of surrendering.

From Inoue’s perspective, if he surrenders, the members who have followed him until now may turn on him as a traitor. Additionally, during the ongoing conflict, police officers are stationed around his home, effectively protecting him. If the war were to end, that protection would vanish. Moving forward means hell, but going back is also hell. Inoue himself is probably struggling to decide his next move.”

What kind of scenario do the key figures leading from the front envision?

What scenario does he envision?

Will there be a massive outburst in the final stage?

Even so, there is no stopping the decline of the Kobe Yamaguchi-gumi. On October 31 last year, one of its veteran executives retired, leaving the organization with zero executives. Coincidentally, this was the same day that Nakata was released from prison and welcomed back into the ranks of the Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi.

“The difference in strength between the two factions is obvious. According to data released by the National Police Agency in March last year, the Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi had approximately 3,500 members, whereas the Kobe Yamaguchi-gumi had only about 140. Some say their numbers have already dropped below 100. The outcome is becoming increasingly clear,” said a journalist from a national newspaper’s social affairs department.

As the endgame becomes more of a reality, will it conclude with a one-sided declaration of peace, as Mizoguchi suggests? Takegaki, mentioned earlier, believes that while large-scale armed conflict is unlikely at this stage, there remains the possibility of further bloodshed in the final phase.

“There are still members of the Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi infiltrating the Kobe Yamaguchi-gumi and other rival groups, waiting for the right moment to strike. In a yakuza conflict, targeting lives is part of the code. The underworld is a living, breathing thing—it’s always in motion. The future is uncertain, and anything could happen at any time.”

Adding to the tension, on December 24 last year, at a meeting attended by senior police officials nationwide, National Police Agency Commissioner Yasuhiro Hiroki stated that law enforcement’s focus on organized crime countermeasures would shift from traditional yakuza to Tokuryu (anonymous, fluid criminal groups). Mizoguchi warns that a loosening grip on the yakuza by authorities could significantly influence the outcome of the conflict.

A journalist familiar with the situation also commented, “The ultimate goal of the Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi remains the complete dismantling of the Kobe Yamaguchi-gumi. To achieve that, they either need Inoue to be eliminated or to retire. For the Sixth Yamaguchi-gumi, a bloodless surrender is not the only option. A major move at the end wouldn’t be surprising.”

The Yamaguchi-gumi split war, which has already claimed many lives, is finally approaching its conclusion. The tension surrounding both factions is growing with each passing day.

From “FRIDAY”, January 24-31, 2025 issue