Declining Fastball Raises Concerns for Sugano, but Orioles Offer Opportunity

“Anyway, it’s about competing in one year,” 

Tomoyuki Sugano (35), whose move from the Yomiuri Giants to the Baltimore Orioles was confirmed, held an online press conference on December 20 and shared his aspirations.

He exercised his overseas free agent rights and signed a one-year contract worth $13 million (approximately 2 billion yen). The fact that the contract is for one year, likely considering his upcoming 36th birthday, is noteworthy. This marks Sugano’s long-awaited move to the majors, which he had hoped for since applying for posting during the offseason of 2020, but he could not make it happen. However, concerns about his future are widespread.

“Most people believe Sugano has passed his peak. While he changed his approach this season by reducing his bullpen workload and recorded a league-leading 15 wins, his velocity is clearly down. His fastball, which used to reach the mid-150s km/h in his youth, was around 145 km/h this season.

When compared to major league pitchers who compete with fastballs close to 160 km/h, Sugano falls short. Injuries are also a concern. Over the past three years through 2023, he has struggled to achieve satisfactory results due to right elbow pain and other issues,” said a sports newspaper reporter.

A pitcher who can fill the gap, even for just one year.

 

Even so, sports journalist Nachi Tomonari predicts that “Suga will be able to perform well,” pointing to the Orioles’ unique situation as the backdrop. Tomonari explains:

“The Orioles have two starting pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery, and it’s said they won’t fully return until 2026. They were looking for a pitcher who could fill the gap for just the 2025 season. Suga must have been the right fit for that condition.

There are concerns about his age and injury history, but the Orioles are expected to use young pitchers and opt for a six-man rotation instead of the usual five-man rotation for the 2025 season. This will increase the number of days between starts from four to five or six, reducing physical strain and minimizing the risk of injury for Suga.”

Tomonari also believes that the decrease in Suga’s fastball velocity will not be a significant disadvantage.

“Suga has a slider with sharp movement as his weapon. By reducing the percentage of fastballs from the 40% he threw in Japan to just around 10%, and focusing more on his breaking balls, he’ll be fine. In fact, Yu Darvish and Kenta Maeda also throw fastballs only around 10% of the time. There’s no need to focus on throwing fast pitches.

The Orioles’ lineup is incredibly strong, with over 230 team home runs. Even if Suga gives up four runs, the team can likely score six to make up for it. Moreover, with a strong set-up man and closer, the chances of being overtaken late in the game are low. Shintaro Fujinami, who struggled in Major League Baseball, was able to pitch freely and thrive only with the Orioles. Suga should be able to take the mound with a relaxed mindset, knowing that a few runs given up won’t necessarily cost the game.”

Tomonari predicts that “Suga can win double-digit games with the Orioles.” It seems that veteran Suga made the best choice for his dream of playing in the majors.