Shigeru Ishiba’s Plan to Secure Majority Without Opposition

I’m glad it’s just like this.

I was happy with this level,” political journalist Shiro Tasaki said on the October 28 broadcast of TBS’s “Hiruobi.

In the lower house election held on October 27, the LDP won 191 seats, down significantly from the 256 seats it held prior to the announcement of the election. In response to this, Tasaki said

I thought the LDP would win 180 seats at worst,” he said.

“There was talk that the first party would be the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

Tasaki stated, “I thought [the LDP] would do 180 at worst.

Shocking prediction of 180 for the DPJ and 175 for the LDP.

This is not an exaggeration.

In the final stages of the election campaign, a media outlet conducted a last-minute survey. The shocking result was “DPJ 180, LDP 175.

The LDP leaders were pale in comparison. The LDP leaders were pale in the face,” said a reporter in charge of politics for a national newspaper.

However, the result was 148 seats for the Rikken compared to the LDP’s 191. The LDP held on to its comparative number one position. A person involved in the political world said, “It is true that the LDP suffered a major defeat.

It is true that the LDP suffered a heavy defeat. However, they stayed one step short of a “catastrophic” defeat. Prime Minister Ishiba has no intention of quitting and will do whatever it takes to stay in power.

He will use any and all means to stay in power,” he said.

The combined number of seats in the Diet, held by both the Liberal Democratic Party and the People’s Liberal Democratic Party, is 215, 18 seats short of the 233 needed to secure a majority. It has been assumed since before the election that the Liberal Democratic Party and the DPJ would fall short of a majority, and there have been rumors of a coalition with the KDP, which made a major leap from 7 to 28 seats in the recent lower house election. ……

At a press conference held on October 28, Prime Minister Ishiba said

“We are not envisioning a coalition at this point in time,” he commented.

He then called for a “partial coalition” with the National Democratic Party of Japan (NDP). Later, he called for a “partial coalition” in which the National Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) would work together on a policy-by-policy basis, but because of the “lending and borrowing” that would occur depending on policy, the ruling party still wants to gain a “majority” in order to facilitate the implementation of its own policies.

The “calculations” for this purpose are said to have been made, albeit on paper. First of all, the party has decided to add Hiroshige Seko, Katsuei Hirasawa, Kōichi Hagiuda, and Yasutoshi Nishimura, who were not approved due to the back taxes issue and other reasons.

Hagiuda, for example, has a grudge against Prime Minister Ishiba, but there are limits to how far he can go in his political activities as an individual. He is likely to be approved, despite his dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister. The more subtle candidate is Seko, who won against Nobuyasu, the third son of former secretary-general Toshihiro Nikai. There is strong opposition from the former Nikai faction, but we can’t turn our backs on them,” said a reporter for a national newspaper.

If all goes smoothly, he will have 219 seats in the Diet, and for the remaining 14 seats, he plans to win over independent elected officials who may cooperate with the ruling party.

Not Only Independents, But “Pulling Away” from the House

“Under the surface, the names of eight independent members of the Diet have been mentioned. Ken Hirose, from Oita’s 2nd Constituency, originally sought official recognition from the LDP and is a good match. Other names include Hitoshi Matsubara, a former member of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (Ward 26, Tokyo), and former TV Asahi reporter and former governor of Kagoshima Prefecture, Kun Mitazono (Ward 2, Kagoshima). If all of them shake their heads, the number of seats will increase to 227 and a majority will be in sight,” said a source in Nagata-cho.

There are only six seats left. From this point on, they will focus their efforts on minority parties.

The party hopes to build a cooperative relationship with the Sangseito, which won three seats in the recent election, and the Japan Conservative Party, which also won three seats.

Aside from the Upper House Party, the Japan Conservative Party may ask for the “reinstatement” of Sanae Takaichi, whose ideology is similar to theirs, as a quid pro quo for cooperation. The three seats in the Diet are the baby of the party, but it would be troublesome to cause confusion with those three seats.

In addition, “pull-out” maneuvers from other parties are also becoming more active.

A member of the KDP is said to have already received an “invitation” from the LDP. According to a reporter for a national newspaper, “The political world is a dark place.

The political world is always in the dark. If the Lower House election is the “front world,” what is going on now is “backroom maneuvering. For the LDP, it is better to woo independent Diet members and minority parties than to form a coalition with opposition parties such as the National Democratic Party of Japan and the Japan Restoration Association and have things get complicated. However, the same thing is being done by the Rikken Democratic Party of Japan (Rikken Dōdōpō), the leading opposition party, and its under-the-sea maneuvering is becoming more and more intense.

Either way, the era of the LDP’s one-party dominance has come to an end. The Upper House election is scheduled for next July. Will the Ishiba administration’s strategy for survival work?