Shigeru Ishiba’s Plan to Secure Majority Without Opposition

“I’m glad it was only this much.”

On the October 28 broadcast of TBS’s “Hiruobi,” political journalist Shiro Tasaki made these remarks.

In the October 27 House of Representatives election, the Liberal Democratic Party saw a significant drop from the 256 seats it held before the official announcement, with only 191 members elected.

“I thought the LDP might hit a worst-case scenario of 180 seats.”

“There were even talks of the Constitutional Democratic Party becoming the largest party.”

Tasaki revealed.

 

A shocking prediction of 180 seats for the Constitutional Democratic Party and 175 for the Liberal Democratic Party.

 

This story is by no means an exaggeration.

In the final stages of the election campaign, a media outlet conducted a last-minute survey. The numbers that came out were a shocking result of 180 seats for the Constitutional Democratic Party and 175 for the Liberal Democratic Party.

“Since the Constitutional Democratic Party was predicted to be the largest party, LDP officials were pale with fear,” said a political reporter from a national newspaper.

However, the actual result was 191 seats for the LDP and 148 for the Constitutional Democratic Party. The LDP managed to hold onto its position as the largest party. Political insiders commented:

“Indeed, the LDP suffered a major defeat. However, they stopped just short of a ‘devastating’ loss. Prime Minister Ishiba has no intention of resigning and plans to use every trick in the book to maintain the administration.”

They said,

Together, the LDP and Komeito hold 215 seats, 18 short of the majority of 233. It was expected that they would fall short of a majority before the election, and rumors of a coalition with the Democratic Party for the People, which made a huge leap from 7 to 28 seats, are circulating.

In a press conference on October 28, Prime Minister Ishiba commented,

“I am not currently considering a coalition at this time.”

Later, he called for a partial coalition with the Democratic Party for the People on a policy-by-policy basis. However, since debits and credits arise based on policies, the ruling party still aims to secure a majority to make it easier to implement their own policies.

The calculations for this are already in place, at least on paper. First, there are plans for additional endorsements for Hiroshige Seko, Katsuei Hirasawa, Koichi Hagiuda, and Yasutoshi Nishimura, who were non-endorsed due to issues such as the slush fund scandal.

 

“Hagiuda, for example, has deep grudges against Prime Minister Ishiba, but there are limits to his individual political activities. Despite his dissatisfaction, he is likely to receive an additional endorsement. A tricky situation is with Seko, who defeated Shinyo, the third son of former Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai. There’s strong resistance from the old Nikai faction, but desperate times call for desperate measures,” said the aforementioned national newspaper reporter.

If the procedures proceed smoothly, the seat count will be 219. For the remaining 14 seats, the ruling party plans to win over independent members who may cooperate.

 

Not just independents, but an unrelenting battle of pulling away from other parties.

 

“Under the surface, the names of eight independent lawmakers have been mentioned. Hiroshi Tate from Oita’s 2nd district had originally sought endorsement from the LDP and is on good terms with them. Other names include former Constitutional Democratic Party member Jin Matsubara (Tokyo’s 26th district) and former TV Asahi journalist and former Kagoshima Governor Kunitake Mitano (Kagoshima’s 2nd district). If they all agree, the seat count would rise to 227, making a majority within reach,” said a Nagatacho insider.

The remaining six seats will now be targeted at small parties.

They aim to build a cooperative relationship with the Sankei Party, which won three seats in this election, as well as the Japan Conservative Party, which also secured three seats.

“While cooperation with the Sankei Party seems straightforward, the Japan Conservative Party may demand the restoration of Sanae Takaichi, whose views align with theirs, as a return for corporation. Whether Prime Minister Ishiba and the current leadership can accept this remains to be seen. Those three seats are valuable, but causing confusion over them would be problematic,” said the aforementioned national newspaper political reporter.

Additionally, the pulling away efforts from other parties have become more active.

It is said that a certain member of the Democratic Party for the People has already received an invitation from the LDP. According to a national newspaper reporter:

“Politics is unpredictable. If the House of Representatives election is the public world, what’s happening now is the behind-the-scenes maneuvering. For the LDP, it’s easier to woo independents and small parties than to form a complicated coalition with opposition parties like the Democratic Party for the People or the Japan Innovation Party. However, the same tactics are being employed by the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and the behind-the-scenes efforts to weaken their opponents are intensifying.”

Either way, the era of LDP dominance is over. The Upper House election is also coming up in July next year. Will the power struggles of Ishiba’s administration succeed in ensuring its survival?