Takaichi on Why She Can’t Stage a Comeback After LDP’s Defeat

In the House of Representatives election held on October 27, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito fell short of the majority with 215 seats.

On the 23rd during the election campaign, the Communist Party’s official newspaper, Shimbun Akahata, reported that the LDP had provided ¥20 million in party subsidies to a political organization led by a candidate who was no longer officially endorsed by the party. This report became the deciding blow in the ruling coalition’s defeat.

“Amid the already unfavorable conditions due to the bribery issue and Unification Church issue, the timing of the Akahata bomb was the worst possible for the LDP. On the 21st, in the middle of the election campaign, Prime Minister Ishiba, Deputy Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama, and Election Strategy Committee Chair Shinjiro Koizumi gathered in Tokyo to rethink their election strategies. In constituencies where they were losing by a large margin, they abandoned those areas and focused on the 40 districts, where the races were said to be tight, with Prime Minister Ishiba entering to support them, but they were unable to make a comeback.” (National newspaper reporter)

Not only among Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers but also among the conservative intellectual class, it is popular.

The “Ishiba LDP” suffered a historic defeat in the House of Representatives election. In such difficult circumstances, there are voices within the party hoping for the resurgence of Sanae Takaichi, who fiercely competed in the LDP presidential election in September. Prominent figures, influencers, and university professors from Takaichi’s faction are actively stoking a sense of crisis.

“Only Takaichi can do it.”

They are desperately trying to create such an atmosphere.

However, reality can be harsh. A national newspaper reporter says,

“After the general election, Ms. Takaichi’s influence has been diminished.”

He asserts definitively.

The reason is simple. Many of the lawmakers who supported Takichi in the leadership race were defeated in the election.

“There is no one to support us, even if we wanted to.” (Same, national newspaper reporter).

The situation arose because of this.

 

This can be understood by looking at the 11 members of the House of Representatives who supported Takaichi’s candidacy.

Miyuki Sugita, who has been frequently discussed, decided not to run for the House of Representatives. Shuichi Takatori from Niigata 5th district, Tomo Tanigawa from Osaka 19th district, Kenta Wakabayashi from Nagano 1st district, Junji Suzuki from Aichi 7th district, Toru Doi from Miyagi 1st district, and Hiromi Mitsubayashi from Saitama 13th district all lost in the election.

Shigeki Kobayashi from Nara 1st district and Hiroyuki Nakamura from Hokkaido 4th district, which was prioritized by Prime Minister Ishiba as a key election district, lost in their districts but revived through proportional representation. Keiji Furukawa from Gifu 5th district, who boasts 11 terms in office, and Yoshihiro Seki from Hyogo 3rd district both won resoundingly in their districts.

There has also been talk of a merger with the Japan Conservative Party.

“In this election, it was said that the number of Takaichi faction members would be cut in half, but only four out of the 11 could return to the Diet. For Prime Minister Ishiba, it was a major blow in terms of losing seats, but it seems his goal of delivering a significant blow to the Abe faction was successful,” said a reporter from a national newspaper.

There are also rumors of a merger with the Japan Conservative Party, which includes author Naoki Hyakuta and former Nagoya Mayor Takashi Kawamura, but political insiders say, “She doesn’t have the guts to go that far. She knows full well that it is because she remains within the Liberal Democratic Party that she can shine.”

“If Ishiba fails and Takaichi also fails, the Liberal Democratic Party itself will be cornered. Well, there are young hopefuls like Takashi Kobayashi (Kobahawk), but calming the public’s anger will be difficult. Whether it’s a change of government or political realignment, Nagatacho is now swirling with intrigue and schemes,” said a TV network reporter.

Shinjiro Koizumi is expected to take responsibility for the defeat and resign as election strategy committee chairman, but Prime Minister Ishiba has indicated his intention to stay on. Criticism from both inside and outside the LDP is expected to grow, and the future of the administration will likely be extremely challenging.