Prime Minister Ishiba’s Comeback Hindered by Stealth Endorsement Reports, Risking Coalition Majority

The House of Representatives election (voting on October 27) has finally entered its final stage.

Around the announcement on October 15, it was generally expected that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) alone would inevitably lose its majority, but the ruling coalition with Komeito was anticipated to maintain its majority. However, as the schedule progressed, the situation worsened. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba distributed an urgent notice titled “Manifesto” to the campaign teams of candidates by the 22nd.

The message began with:

“The election is now at a critical juncture,”

and continued with,

“Although fierce battles are ongoing across the country as we enter the latter half, this House of Representatives election is, needless to say, an election for choosing the government.”

Despite reports of struggles in the election campaign, he inspired his party by stating:

“Now is the time to demonstrate our party’s true strength.”

 

He focused his support on the 40 electoral districts that are reported to be closely contested.

On the 21st, Prime Minister Ishiba, Vice President Yoshihide Suga, Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama, and Election Strategy Chairman Shinjiro Koizumi gathered in Tokyo for an “Imperial Conference.” According to sources in Nagatacho:

“It seems they reviewed their strategy for the final stage of the election campaign, as there is a possibility that the ruling coalition could lose its majority. To put it simply, they decided to abandon districts where they are losing by a large margin to opposition candidates and focus their support on the 40 districts where they are reported to be in close contests. On the final day, the 26th, Prime Minister Ishiba will tour seven districts in Tokyo.”

In addition to election strategies, another topic of discussion at the “Imperial Conference” was the post-election response, according to the aforementioned Nagatacho source.

“There was a suggestion that if the ruling coalition were to lose its majority, they should explore forming a three-party coalition with the Constitutional Democratic Party. Although Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) genuinely wants to be in the ruling coalition, they risk significantly reducing their seats in this election and becoming irrelevant. It would be more strategic to turn to the Constitutional Democratic Party rather than a declining Ishin no Kai. The key will be whether the Constitutional Democratic Party accepts the offer. After the Imperial Conference, all the senior members of the Liberal Democratic Party reportedly emerged with serious expressions.”

While the LDP struggles and looks for a “second coalition partner,” reports have emerged that add further pressure.

 

On October 23, the Communist Party’s official newspaper, Akahata, reported that the Liberal Democratic Party had provided 20 million yen in political funding to a party branch led by a non-endorsed candidate.

On the 24th, Prime Minister Ishiba expressed his anger, stating:

“It is being provided to the party branch, not to the non-endorsed candidate. There is absolutely no use of such funds in the election.”

However, given that politics and money are key issues in this election, it is hard to believe that he will gain public understanding on this matter.

 

“Stealth endorsement” was criticized by the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Tamaki.

The leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Yoshihiko Noda, criticized, stating,

“They are effectively providing endorsement fees to lawmakers involved in under-the-table payments.”

Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, also condemned the situation, saying,

“The Liberal Democratic Party is not reflecting on itself at all while engaging in such stealth endorsements.”

With this, various opposition parties are ramping up their attacks.

“Ahead of the voting day, just four days prior, Prime Minister Ishiba held an ‘Imperial Conference’ and issued a manifesto to reinvigorate the LDP. However, the timing of the red flag gun is so perfect that it could be a finishing blow. Faced with headwinds from the under-the-table money scandal and the Unification Church issue, the election was already tough. If it turns out that despite Ishiba’s non-endorsement of lawmakers involved in the scandal, he was secretly supporting them with funds and engaging in stealth endorsements, it’s only natural for the public to feel mocked” (a reporter from a national newspaper).

Major media outlets are divided in their predictions for the election outcomes, making it difficult to read the situation clearly. Because of this, the voice of the people may become even more crucial.