Lichtman Predicts Name of the “47th President of the United States” After Nine Successful Elections
Professor Lichtman, a quantitative historian at American University, has assured us that the "Nostradamus of the Presidential Election" has been right on the money nine times in a row!
The U.S. presidential election, which will significantly influence global affairs, is now less than two months away.
This election is full of uncertainties.
Democratic President Joe Biden (81) has declined to seek the nomination due to his age, passing the mantle to Vice President Kamala Harris (59), while former Republican President Donald Trump (78) survived an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, where a bullet pierced his ear. Unprecedented developments continue to unfold.
A person who has clearly seen the election results.
As we approach the election day on November 5, uncertainties remain about the surprises that may await. However, there is one person who confidently claims to have “clearly seen” the election results: Alan Lichtman (77), a professor at American University and a renowned quantitative historian.
Since accurately predicting Ronald Reagan’s reelection in 1984, Lichtman has correctly forecasted the outcomes of nine consecutive elections, with the exception of the irregularities in 2000 when the vote count was partially halted, up to the last presidential election in 2020. Lichtman is regarded by journalists and political figures around the world as the “Nostradamus of presidential elections.” In this interview with FRIDAY, he revealed the details of his infallible election prediction.
“Predictions made by experts lack scientific basis. Polls only capture a moment in time,” Lichtman asserts.
The method Lichtman uses for his presidential election predictions is called “The Keys to the White House,” a unique methodology he co-developed in 1981 with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a mathematical geologist from the former Soviet Union. This method involves analyzing 13 specific indicators and making judgments based on “yes” or “no” responses. If there are eight or more “yes” answers, the ruling party is expected to win.
Now, let’s take a closer look at how Lichtman has judged the 13 indicators this time.
Victory is unassailable
- The ruling party increased its seats in the midterm elections.
– No. In the 2022 midterm elections, the ruling Democratic Party lost seats.
- There is no significant challenger in the ruling party’s primaries.
– Yes. Kamala Harris secured overwhelming support to become the Democratic nominee.
- The ruling party candidate is the incumbent president.
– No. Joe Biden is the incumbent president.
- There is no strong third-party candidate.
– Yes. The third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (70, independent), has withdrawn from the race.
- There is no short-term economic recession.
– Yes. There has been no recession, and the likelihood of one occurring before the presidential election is low.
- The economy is growing in the long term.
– Yes. The average economic growth rate under the Biden administration has doubled compared to the Trump administration.
- There has been a significant policy shift from the previous administration.
– Yes. There have been major policy changes in areas such as environmental issues, immigration policy, and infrastructure.
- There is no ongoing social unrest.
– Yes. Although there have been sporadic protests, they have not developed into major social phenomena.
- There are no scandals involving the current administration.
– Yes. The president has not faced any corruption scandals.
- There have been no failures in foreign or military policy by the current administration.
– No. The conflict in the Gaza Strip can be seen as a failure of the U.S. administration.
- There are significant achievements in foreign or military policy.
– Yes. Biden’s support in the Ukraine conflict can be considered a success.
- The ruling party candidate has charisma or is viewed as a hero.
– No. Harris does not possess the absolute charisma representative of the times.
- The opposition candidate lacks charisma and is not viewed as a hero.
– Yes. While Trump is a prominent figure, he does not have the absolute charisma representative of the times.
This person, without a doubt!
When the judgments are tallied, there are nine “yes” responses. Lichtman confidently asserts that the ruling party, specifically Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, will become the “47th President of the United States.”
Lichtman noted that the most challenging judgment was number 11, concerning achievements in foreign and military policy. While he acknowledged that there could be changes before the presidential election, he stated that even if this item were marked “no,” there are still eight “yes” responses, which means “Vice President Harris’s victory is secure.”
This year’s presidential election has been marked by unexpected developments, but Lichtman remained steadfast.
“Some people say we should change the 13 keys every four years, but the keys have been robustly developed, so there is no need to alter them for each election. They can even be traced back to the horse-and-buggy era of the 1860s,” he stated.
After correctly predicting the tumultuous 2016 presidential election, which saw Trump’s victory defy most experts’ forecasts, Lichtman received a letter from Trump congratulating him with the words, “Professor, congratulations.” As the U.S. presidential election approaches its final stretch, the man who claims to never miss is calmly looking ahead.
From the September 27/October 4, 2024 issue of FRIDAY
Interview and text by： Toshihiro Yamada PHOTO： AP/Afro Jiji Press (Mr. Lichtman)
