Shigeru Ishiba Transformed by Final Battle with Bowing Head and Changed Attitude

Contradictions Faced by Candidates

Candidates for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election are carrying contradictions.

If they bring up the issue of slush funds in faction parties and explicitly state that severe penalties will be imposed, they may gain public support. However, at the same time, they risk incurring the displeasure of former members of the Abe faction and former Nikai faction who have been penalized, making it difficult to secure votes from members of the Diet. Candidates are troubled over whether to align with the public or Nagata-cho, whether to prioritize ideals or practical benefits.

“There are 39 members who have been penalized for slush fund issues, and among them, 36 belong to the former Abe faction. Of those, 82 members have been identified as having undisclosed amounts, with those under 5 million escaping penalties. This means about 20% of LDP Diet members are involved.

In the first round of voting in the presidential election, votes from Diet members and local votes (collected from party members nationwide and distributed using the D’Hondt method) are equal at 382 votes each. However, if no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a runoff between the first and second place candidates will take place. In the runoff, local votes will decrease to 47, while votes from Diet members will remain unchanged. This means that candidates do not want to alienate members of the Diet.”

Former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi (49) and current Economic Security Minister Takaichi (63) said that “It is not right in terms of governance to overturn a decision made by the party,” choosing support from lawmakers over public popularity regarding the reassignment of lawmakers involved in slush funds. Former Environment Minister Koizumi (43) said, “We will take a tough attitude,” but avoided making a definitive statement with vague language.

In the meantime, former Secretary-General Ishiba (67), despite some inconsistencies, continues to speak candidly and is gathering public support.

The determination seen in the ‘confrontation’ with reporters.

“The public is still not convinced. We must fulfill our accountability.”

On September 10, at a policy announcement press conference held in the Diet Member’s Office, he stated this and shared a lesson he received from former Deputy Prime Minister Michio Watanabe before becoming a lawmaker.

“If you want to be called ‘sensei,’ seek medals, or desire money, go home right now. A politician must speak with courage, sincerity, and truth,” he was taught. “With this sentiment, I will reform the Liberal Democratic Party. I will follow the rules. The attitude of ‘they won’t understand anyway’ is unacceptable.”

During the policy announcement, he faced reporters for a lengthy 110 minutes, the longest of any candidate so far.

The press conference was not one where questions were selectively chosen like with Shinjiro Koizumi. Koizumi frequently glanced down at a phonebook-sized script covered in sticky notes and remained vague in his responses, while Ishiba spoke passionately without looking at his prepared remarks, expressing a desire for “politics that sincerely faces the public” and wanting to “establish a political party law to improve party governance.”

“If we respond ambiguously to the slush fund issue, we risk losing public support. There’s a limit to gaining popularity among party lawmakers. Ishiba has taken a gamble to gain party member votes that resonate more with the public. He intends to place first or second and challenge Koizumi in a runoff. Behind Koizumi stands former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (75). It will be interesting to see how senior party figures, who don’t want to be controlled by Suga, will react. Notably, Taro Aso (83), the Deputy Prime Minister, has a strong dislike for Ishiba, but Ryota Takeda (56), a former Minister of Internal Affairs, who is vying for dominance in Fukuoka, is supporting Koizumi. There is also a possibility that Aso might choose Ishiba” (political journalist Koichi Kakutani).

Ishiba has vigorously pursued accountability from former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe regarding the Moritomo Gakuen and Kake Gakuen issues and criticized the LDP’s money-driven culture in the slush fund matter. However, this stance earned him resentment within the LDP, being labeled as “shooting from behind” and a “top-down, self-appointed critic.”

The Weakness of ‘Being Caring’

Despite this, Ishiba consistently ranks high in public opinion polls asking about “politicians suitable for the next prime minister.” At one point, he established his faction, the Suigetsukai, and became its leader. After being sidelined during the Abe administration, members of the Suigetsukai, which gradually collapsed before Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s (67) faction dissolution announcement, now sigh as they reflect on their group’s fragmentation.

“He is undoubtedly qualified to be prime minister in terms of policy-making ability, deep knowledge, and dignity. However, in past leadership elections, it was always the surrounding lawmakers desperately making calls for support. He himself doesn’t even try to make calls. Even when meetings are set up, he never lowers his head to ask for support. People often asked, ‘Ishiba-san, you’re running for the leadership, right?’”

Ishiba’s background has also become a target for criticism within the party. In 1993, he supported a no-confidence motion against the Miyazawa Cabinet, leading to his departure from the party. After a series of twists and turns, he returned to the party in March 1997, but even now, over a quarter of a century later, he is still criticized as a “returnee.” While former Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai (85) also left the LDP around the same time, he does not face such public criticism. What separates the two?

“It all comes down to being caring,” said a certain election planner, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

“When you dine with Ishiba, he’s well-read and has plenty of topics to discuss. His analysis is sharp and very educational. However, he’s not considerate when it comes to paying the bill; he often says, ‘Let’s split the bill today.’ If there are more influential or financially capable people present, he leaves the payment to them and doesn’t even bring a small gift. During his time as the head of the Suigetsukai, he made new lawmakers split the bill, and one of those lawmakers ended up joining Abe’s faction.

In contrast, Nikai covers not only the costs of meetings but also brings gifts like local plums from Wakayama. Former Prime Minister Suga might bring Akita Inaniwa udon or Yokohama sweet beans. The support isn’t just because they give gifts or treat you; leaders of factions in the LDP routinely check in with bureaucrats, reporters, and petitioners, saying things like, ‘Hey, have you eaten?’ or ‘I just got some great (local specialty). Take some with you.’ This consideration and ability to show care directly influence the outcomes in leadership elections.”

Ishiba may not be adept at navigating within organizations. However, even if he doesn’t socialize well at drinking parties, he makes an effort to attend events when requested as a supporter.

During the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly by-election in July, which coincided with the gubernatorial election, Ishiba was seen delivering a spirited campaign speech in the shopping district of Ōyama in Itabashi, drenched in sweat. This could reflect a different approach to living as a politician, but it seems he is doing his best to build connections in his own way.

Towards a ‘Culmination’

Still, to enter the leadership election, Ishiba needs 20 nominators, and to aim further, he requires as many parliamentary votes as possible.

“Politicians with ample funds maintain factions through money and positions, aspiring to become prime minister. This has been the traditional path of LDP politics. Ishiba, who has not engaged in fundraising or distributed benefits to peers, is still at a disadvantage” (previously cited journalist).

However, a change is occurring with Ishiba, who has long been mocked as “stingy” and a “lone wolf.” In late August, it was reported that Ishiba treated former House of Representatives Vice Speaker Seishiro Eto (83) to a meal at a pufferfish restaurant in Tokyo. 

Eto is a veteran from the former Abe faction who is said to have taken charge of gathering nominators for Ishiba’s leadership campaign. Political scientist Yukiko Amakawa, who knows Eto well, shares her insights.

“When dining with Ishiba, he has always treated others but has never been treated himself. Yet, the conversations are enjoyable and educational, so Eto has paid the bill. Even in situations where Ishiba should lower his head, he reportedly wouldn’t offer to pay. However, now Ishiba has started to pour drinks for others, and when he stepped away, I thought he might have gone to the restroom, but he settled the bill. When Eto tried to pay, he was told, ‘It’s been covered by Ishiba-sensei,’ which left him astonished. Up until now, despite being advised to ‘lower your head’ and ‘treat your peers,’ he couldn’t do it. While eating pufferfish, Eto insisted, ‘This is your last chance; even if you have to go into debt, dine with lawmakers and humble yourself.’ Ishiba responded with a serious expression, saying, ‘I understand.’ Before the leadership election, he seems to be undergoing a transformation.”

Eto was genuinely pleased with Ishiba’s personal growth.

“It’s impressive how he was able to engage with reporters for nearly two hours without looking at his script. It’s completely different from candidates like Koizumi, whose gaze keeps bouncing between the script and the audience. The lawmakers are paying attention to that. Right now, nearly 40 lawmakers are supporting Ishiba, and the more policy discussions we have, the more that number will likely grow.”

Ishiba, with one foot on the precipice, is trying to change before this crucial moment. Will this challenge become the “culmination” of his 38 years in political life?