Earth Extinction Risk from 2025 Meteorite Examined by Experts

“On July 5, 2025, a meteorite or asteroid will collide with Earth”

This theory is spreading, particularly on the internet. If a large meteorite, similar to the one that caused the extinction of dinosaurs 66 million years ago, were to collide with Earth, humanity would indeed face extinction.

When thinking of “Earth’s demise in the month of July,” Nostradamus’s great prophecy (“In the year 1999, in the month of July, the great king of terror will come from the sky”) comes to mind. However, the origin of the current theory is in Ryō Tatsuki’s manga “The Future I Saw,” which depicted his prophetic dream and predicted the Great East Japan Earthquake.

In the manga that correctly predicted the March 2011 disaster, Tatsuki illustrated that a “great disaster” would occur in July 2025. However, it is unknown whether this disaster will be a massive earthquake, an underwater volcanic eruption, or a meteorite or asteroid impact.

Another factor supporting this theory is an old prophecy of the Hopi, a Native American tribe in the U.S., which says, “When the blue star appears, the world will end.” This has now evolved into an urban legend that “a Japanese person heard from a Hopi chief that a green comet will collide in 2025.”

What has been significant is the endorsement by scientists. Kunio Hosoe, an honorary professor at Notre Dame Seishin University who studied astronomy at Tohoku University and theoretical and mathematical physics at Kyoto University and Nagoya University, and later served as a lecturer in theoretical physics at the University of Geneva in Switzerland, has claimed on YouTube and other platforms that he received information from a NASA alumnus. He has stated that “on July 5, 2025, fragments of an asteroid will collide” and that “fortune tellers and prophets are relocating to higher ground.”

Why next year? Can meteorite or asteroid collisions be predicted? Is there a possibility that human history might end? I asked Kiyoshi Yamaoka (59), an astronomer at the National Astronomical Observatory and a director of the NPO Japan Spaceguard Association.

 

Specialized agencies in various countries are taking measures.

“Firstly, from an astronomical perspective, I find the term ‘meteorite fall’ somewhat misleading. A ‘meteorite’ is a fragment of a small celestial body, and ‘fall’ refers to the effect of Earth’s gravity. Since these objects are coming from space where Earth’s gravity does not act, it would be more accurate to refer to it as ‘small celestial body Earth impact.'”

Yamaoka started the discussion with this point. He explained that to prevent collisions with small celestial bodies, specialized agencies in various countries are developing countermeasures.

“In the 1990s, the Space Guard (Planetary Defense) project was launched to protect humanity from celestial body impacts. The International Space Guard Foundation and the Japan SpaceGuard Association were established in 1996.”

Thanks to the project’s achievements, the discovery of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) has rapidly increased. According to the Japan SpaceGuard Association, about 400 NEOs that come close to Earth’s orbit have been discovered.

“When an NEO is discovered, the first step is to calculate its orbit. We monitor whether it is on a collision course with Earth or if there is no risk of collision. Based on that, we explore whether it’s possible to deflect its orbit. For instance, we conduct experiments by deploying sails made of resin film on the celestial body, using solar radiation to gradually alter its orbit through propulsion.

In fact, in 2004, the asteroid Apophis, with a diameter of about 340 meters and expected to approach Earth in 2029, was discovered. Although Apophis will not collide with Earth, various agencies continue to monitor it. For example, NASA is experimenting by crashing a probe into the asteroid to measure how much its orbit changes. JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) also plans to implement similar measures in the future,” said Yamaoka.

JAXA plans to send the asteroid probe “Hayabusa2” to approach and explore the asteroid “2001 CC21,” which is considered to have a potential to come close to Earth, in July 2026. However, it is noted that “observations may not be possible for smaller celestial bodies.

“There are cases where meteorites, such as the one that collided in Chelyabinsk, Russia on February 15, 2013, or the Narashino meteorite, which was ‘observed as a fireball’ in Chiba Prefecture on July 2, 2020, cannot be detected until just before impact.”

It is terrifying to think that some meteorites may not be observed until the very last moment. What kind of damage is anticipated from such celestial collisions?

“We can observe large objects that could cause significant disasters on Earth. Objects with a diameter of 1 kilometer or more are detectable. Objects with a diameter of several tens of meters may not be observed. For example, the Chelyabinsk meteorite was one such case. Although there were no fatalities from the collision, there were injuries caused by broken glass from the explosion.”

The Chelyabinsk meteorite, with an estimated diameter of about 17 meters and a weight of approximately 10,000 tons, broke up at an altitude of 27 kilometers. The shockwave caused damage to 4,474 buildings throughout Chelyabinsk city, located 50 kilometers from the explosion site, and 1,491 people were injured.

According to Newtonian mechanics, the energy of the impact is proportional to the mass times the square of the velocity, so if the size of the meteorite is doubled, the impact energy increases eightfold. Even if a celestial body with a diameter of several tens of meters, which is larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite and might be undetectable, were on a collision course with Earth, if it cannot be observed before it enters the atmosphere, countermeasures would be impossible.

“In conclusion, the idea that ‘a meteorite will collide with Earth in 2025 and cause human extinction’ is nothing more than an occult urban legend,” asserted Yamaoka. However, he noted that it is possible for small celestial bodies with a diameter of several tens of meters to enter the atmosphere undetected. In such cases, “the possibility of a major disaster is not zero,” Yamaoka said.

Once a meteorite impact is confirmed, our options are limited to… evacuating to areas less likely to be affected, taking shelter in underground bunkers, or perhaps praying. In the face of the vast universe, humanity is a tiny, fragile existence. While there is no need for excessive fear, we should not take our existence for granted.