Shohei Ohtani: Two challenges stand in the way of winning the Triple Crown

It was truly a “hitting moment.

Neither Shohei Ohtani, 30, nor the right fielder took a single step in the batter’s box as the ball hit the top shelf of the second tier of the light stand. The ball hit a super-fast and super-large No. 32 with a velocity of 191 km/h. It stunned the entire United States.

At this pace, he will hit around 48 home runs, a .310 to .320 batting average, around 116 runs batted in, a 40% or higher on-base percentage, a 1.050 OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage), and over 40 stolen bases.

In his two-faced days, there were cases where his performance dropped or he broke down in the second half of the season due to fatigue, but this season, there is no need to worry about that.

The birth of the “first Japanese triple crown winner in the majors,” which no one in the world had ever even imagined before, is now becoming a reality.

However, this is Major League Baseball, the world’s most prestigious stage. It is not an easy dream to make come true. In fact, the data clearly shows the “two challenges” that Otani must overcome in order to win the Triple Crown.

The first test is “batting average with runners in scoring position. His batting average has dropped significantly from .317 last season to .247 (as of July 30. When the bases are loaded, the problem is even worse.)

When the bases are loaded, the problem is even worse: He was hitting .375 last season, but this season he is hitting .167, which is not even close to 20%. This is probably related to his move to the Dodgers. The Angels, a weak team with only Ohtani as a star, and an evergreen team with top-notch players, have different levels of attention and pressure from fans and the media. And this is only his first year with the Angels. In order to gain the trust of his teammates and make a place for himself, he has no choice but to achieve results and gain their recognition. The fact that his batting average in March and April was particularly poor in terms of runs batted in shows his impatience to get results as soon as possible.

Otani, too, is a human being. Even so, he is second in the league with 76 runs batted in because he has many opportunities to bat when there are runners on base. This is the biggest advantage of moving to the Dodgers.

Another test is “weakness.

His four-seam batting average, which was .394 last season, has dropped to .301, and his cutter batting average, which was also .381, has dropped to .267.

Nachi Tomonari, who has been covering the majors for 30 years, explains.

On July 19 against the Red Sox, he struck out three against Nick Pivutta.

Fujimoto’s analysis is that “he has improved his batting average by 6 to 15 percent by using sinkers, splits, and other pitches that fall low, but when he is attacked with a high fastball, he loses his eye contact. This data is already known by all baseball teams. Tomonari points out, “From around June, they have been playing a more aggressive game with high fastballs.

Last year and the year before, pitchers in the Majors used a high and low pitching attack. However, until last season, Ohtani was strong on high four-seamers, so his game pitch was a low breaking ball. Now he has switched to a fishing pitch in the high ball zone.”

It is not only opposing pitchers who stand in the way of winning the Triple Crown. The Braves’ Marcell Ozuna (33), who leads Otani by seven runs with 83 runs batted in, is second in home runs, also one run behind. He is seen as the biggest threat.

He’s the third-best hitter in the lineup, which makes it easier for Ozuna to score runs, whereas Ohtani is the top hitter,” said O’Neill. He has explosive power, so it’s scary when he makes waves. In the batting average category, Christian Yelich (32) of the Brewers and Luis Araez (27) of the Padres, who have each won the top spot twice in the past, will be his rivals,” said Tomonari.

The barriers to overcome seem high, but there is data to encourage fans, according to Tomonari.

The wall may be high, but there is some data to encourage fans, he said. He’s hitting .407, .472, and .361, in that order,” he said. If he gets a little lax, …… and pitchers will get more power and more lost pitches. Players who can hit an in-high four-seamer are rare in the majors. Let’s just keep going. If there’s any concern, it’s the commitment to stealing bases; 40-40 is great, but it’s an injury risk.”

The dream of the first Japanese player to win the Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera (Tigers) in 2012 is within reach.

From the August 16, 2024 issue of FRIDAY