Trump as Japan’s Solution Amid Counterattacks from Dictators Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong-un

World Peace Summit, Russia-North Korea Summit, and South China Sea Disputes.

 

China, Russia, and North Korea, the three authoritarian regimes aiming to dismantle the post-WWII order led by the U.S., have significantly shifted towards changing the status quo through increased military cooperation. Looking back at June 2024, when China, Russia, and North Korea focused their show of force globally, it might be said that “this was the beginning of the end of the post-war order.” 

 

China-Russia Honeymoon and Russia-North Korea Thaw

There were signs. First, on May 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin (71) visited China and met with President Xi Jinping (71), praising China’s fair and balanced stance. The discussion focused on China’s absence from the World Peace Summit, the first international conference on Ukraine peace, and the request for China to stay away.

 

For Xi, avoiding isolation in the international community due to a Russian defeat in the Ukraine war was crucial. To continue countering the US, China needed to showcase its close relationship with Russia and have a strong ally in Russia for joint opposition against the US.

 

In fact, China maintained its absence from the peace summit held in Switzerland for two days starting June 15, a month after the meeting. 

Countries such as India, Brazil, and South Africa, which play central roles in the Global South, did not sign the joint statement confirming the territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine. These nations are either members or prospective members of BRICS, a multilateral organization centered around China and Russia. The statement did not even include condemnation of Russia.

On June 19, shortly after, President Putin visited North Korea. He contributed an article to the Korean Workers’ Party’s newspaper, praising the Soviet Union’s role in defeating Japanese forces during the Korean War and emphasizing the “glorious historical tradition” of the alliance. 

Highlighting Japan and the US as common enemies, Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with North Korea. For neighboring Japan, this has significantly heightened the threat level from Russia and North Korea.

 

 

Collapsing and Eroding International Order

Russia has already procured ballistic missiles and millions of artillery shells from North Korea, allegedly in exchange for advanced military technology such as reconnaissance satellites. There is now a risk that Russia could accelerate support for North Korea’s development of advanced weapons like tactical nuclear arms. President Putin emphasized that the indefinite sanctions regime imposed on North Korea by the UN, inspired by the US and its allies, must be reviewed. This would not only undermine the UN Security Council’s repeated sanctions against North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs but also contribute to the erosion of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by supporting and enhancing North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.

The collapse of the post-war order extends beyond just these events. On June 15, China unilaterally implemented a new law allowing it to detain foreigners in areas it claims as its own, including the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea, ignoring international law. This led to a clash on June 17 between a Chinese Coast Guard ship and a Philippine military transport vessel near the Ayungin Shoal in the South China Sea. The Chinese Coast Guard boarded the transport ship, temporarily detaining and injuring the crew.

Similar incidents could occur around the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa. Chinese Coast Guard ships frequently enter Japan’s territorial waters from the contiguous zone to track Japanese fishing boats. Recently, large vessels equipped with weapons have become common. As of June 30, Chinese Coast Guard ships have been patrolling the contiguous zone around the Senkaku Islands for a record 192 consecutive days, and the Japanese government must seriously consider how to respond to potential collisions with the Japan Coast Guard.

U.S. Biden Administration Disrespected

The Ukraine crisis could potentially spread to East Asia. However, what stands out is the lack of presence from the U.S.

President Joe Biden (81) did not attend the peace summit. In response to the rapid rapprochement between Russia and North Korea, a Pentagon spokesperson only issued a mild statement expressing concern. 

One reason Global South countries did not sign the peace summit’s joint statement is the G7’s double standards in dealing with Israel. While the G7 condemns Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, its response to Israel’s humanitarian issues has been muted, a discrepancy that might stem from the U.S.’s hasty support for Israel.

The U.S., uniquely positioned to ask Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to “wait a day” before retaliating, failed to urgently convene the UN Security Council to address Hamas’s actions and rally global opinion. This might have shifted international perspectives and highlighted Russia’s expected veto.

The U.S.-led international order has significantly destabilized. President Obama, fatigued by wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, declared in 2013 that “the U.S. is not the world’s policeman.” President Trump, who took office in 2017, further emphasized nationalism and withdrew from Afghanistan, criticizing globalization.

In April 2021, despite military consensus that withdrawing troops is complex, President Biden announced a complete U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by September 11, causing chaos. This was followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’s attacks on Israel, and, in June 2024, the formation of a military alliance between Russia and North Korea and China’s further disruption of maritime order, all occurring under the Biden administration.

 

If there’s one tiger, there might be almost another tiger ahead.

Whether the current international order can be maintained hinges clearly on the U.S. presidential election in November. If former President Trump wins, the greatest concern is his policy towards Russia. Known for his preference for deals and one-on-one diplomacy, there is speculation that he might allow Russia to annex part of Ukraine’s territory and push for a ceasefire in Ukraine. 

However, during his first term, Trump identified China as the biggest threat and upgraded the Quad (the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India) to a ministerial-level framework, while maintaining dialogue with President Xi. He also strengthened economic sanctions against North Korea but managed to bring Kim Jong-un to the negotiating table. Politics is all about results.

Yet, the close ties between Russia, China, and North Korea are not without friction. The recent Russia-North Korea rapprochement was triggered by China’s refusal to supply lethal weapons to Russia, raising concerns that North Korea might drift away from China.

Therefore, the new U.S. president must be wise enough to exploit these gaps among the three countries. To prevent the end of the post-war order, it might be worth hoping for what Trump and a near-Trump scenario could offer.

For this, Japan needs to demonstrate to Trump a diplomatic strategy of strengthening relations with China and Korea and focusing on building ties with North Korea.

Hidemichi Katsumata
Hidemichi Katsumata joined Yomiuri Shimbun in 1983. He has covered the Ministry of Defense and the Self-Defense Forces since 1993. In 1999, he became the first civilian to graduate from the National Defense Medical College’s Graduate School of Comprehensive Security Studies. He has reported on numerous SDF overseas missions, including aid in Rwanda, the East Timor PKO, Indian Ocean refueling operations, and anti-piracy efforts off Somalia. After roles as Editorial Department Chief and Editorial Committee Member, he became a professor at Nihon University in April 2016. His books include Self-Defense Forces in Action (Wedge) and Verification: 25 Years of Crisis (Namiki Shobo).

From the July 19, 2024 issue of FRIDAY