Four Hurdles Hindering Kubo Takefusa’s Inclusion in the Japanese National Soccer Team for the Paris Olympics

Since the “Miami Miracle” at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics, where Japan achieved a historic victory against Brazil, the Japanese national team has secured Olympic qualification for seven consecutive games. They finished fourth in the 2012 London Olympics and the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, coming tantalizingly close to a medal.

However, this illustrious history may come to an end this year. The U-23 Japanese national team is currently competing in the AFC U-23 Asian Cup, the final qualifier for the Paris Olympics scheduled for this summer, starting from April 15th. As stated by the team’s director, Masakuni Yamamoto, “Honestly, there is only a sense of crisis,” the team’s fate on the grand stage remains uncertain.

The team is led by head coach Tsuyoshi Oiwa, a seasoned coach who led Kashima Antlers to victory in the AFC Champions League in 2018. While his coaching abilities are highly regarded, football is a sport where the coach’s power alone is often insufficient. The “talent shortage” of the Paris Olympics generation born after 2001 has been a concern from the outset, and players rising to the A team under the leadership of coach Hajime Moriyasu have been scarce.

The only two players who are key figures in both the U-23 and A national teams are forward Takefusa Kubo (22, Real Sociedad) and goalkeeper Ayano Suzuki (21, Sint-Truiden). While there are five players in the final Olympic qualifying squad who have been called up to the A national team, such as forward Masatake Hosoya (22, Kashiwa), who participated in the Asia Cup in Qatar in January and February, and goalkeeper Daishi Nozawa Brandon (21, FC Tokyo), they have yet to establish themselves in the A team.

Both Kubo and Suzuki are not part of the final qualifying squad, and players such as Yuito Suzuki (22, Brøndby IF, Denmark), Mitsutoshi Saito (22), and Shunsuke Mito (21) from Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands, and Yutaro Oda (22, Heart of Midlothian, Scotland) could not be called up. This is because the final qualifier is not scheduled during an International Match Day (IMD).

International Match Day (IMD) is prioritized by each country’s football association, and clubs are obligated to send players. The days when the Asian Cup was held in January and February were treated as IMD, allowing Japan to field key players such as International Match Day (IMD) is prioritized by each country’s football association, and clubs are obligated to send players. The days when the Asian Cup was held in January and February were treated as IMD, allowing Japan to field key players such as International Match Day (IMD) is prioritized by each country’s football association, and clubs are obligated to send players. The days when the Asian Cup was held in January and February were treated as IMD, allowing Japan to field key players such as Wataru Endo (31, Liverpool) and Takehiro Tomiyasu (25, Arsenal).

However, this is not the case for the Olympic qualifiers. Currently, Europe is in the final stages of the season, with crucial games for every club. It’s impossible to afford the absence of valuable players. Despite the Japan Football Association (JFA) repeatedly requesting cooperation from clubs, and even coach Oiwa traveling to Europe to make requests, only a few players from Sint-Truiden, owned by Japanese company “DMM.com”, such as Rihito Yamamoto (22) and Chima Fujita (22), were called up. However, even Sint-Truiden declined to release Suzuki, stating, “We sent him to the Asian Cup, so he can’t participate this time.” This inability to assemble the best squad for the Paris Olympics weighs heavily on the coach’s mind.

In the past, the selection of European players for the final qualifiers has been a challenge, as seen with Yuki Otsu (34) from the 2012 London Olympics, Takumi Minamino (29, AS Monaco) and Hiroki Abe (30, Cincinnati) from the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. However, the JFA managed to gather them for the Olympics. But now, club power has increased, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to obtain their cooperation.

Furthermore, the weather in Qatar in April is hot, with temperatures reaching 35°C or more, similar to midsummer in Japan. While the stadiums have air conditioning, players will still have to endure training and adjustments in extreme heat. In such conditions, the Middle Eastern teams have an advantage. Matches are typically held every two days. It will be a challenging battle for Japan, unable to assemble their best squad.

Another challenge is the lack of international experience among the Paris Olympics generation. The current squad consists of players born between 2001 and 2004, who spent their late teens and early twenties during the COVID-19 pandemic, restricting overseas travel. Furthermore, the U-20 World Cup (W Cup) in 2021, which was supposed to be led by players born between 2001 and 2002, was canceled, along with the cancellation of the Asian final qualifiers. They lack the experience of intense competition.

Former stars such as Shunsuke Nakamura (45, Yokohama FC coach), Shinji Ono (44, J.League Executive Director), Keisuke Honda (37), and Shinji Kagawa (35) all participated in the U-20 W Cup, and they all agree that it helped them understand their position in the world. The absence of this valuable experience is a significant setback.

Only two players, Kusei Matsuki (20, FC Tokyo) and Kotaro Takai (20, Kawasaki), born in 2003 and 2004, barely participated in the U-20 W Cup in 2023 (Argentina), where Japan was eliminated in the group stage. This is yet another negative aspect.

Yamamoto, the National Director, explained, “When I said ‘there is only a sense of crisis,’ it’s largely due to the lack of experience of this generation in the U-20 W Cup.” When it comes down to the final qualifiers, whether the players of Coach Oiwa’s Japan can fully utilize their potential remains uncertain, and the anxiety persists. (31, Liverpool) and Takehiro Tomiyasu (25, Arsenal).

Group stage matchups are also tough. Japan will start with the China match on the 16th, followed by the UAE match on the 19th and the match against South Korea on the 22nd. Securing a top-two spot is considered extremely difficult. Particularly, the rivalry between China and South Korea is intense, and they are expected to challenge Japan with the determination of “cannot lose to Japan”.

 

Even if they advance past the group stage, Qatar or Australia awaits in the quarterfinals. Qatar is a powerhouse that has won consecutive Asian Cups, with the advantage of playing at home. Australia excels in physical aspects such as height and strength, and they are confident in aerial battles and long balls, which Japan struggles with. They are undoubtedly formidable opponents.

 

If they manage to overcome these challenges and reach the semifinals, they are likely to face teams from the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq. For Saudi Arabia, neighboring country Qatar is like playing at home, and Iraq is a team that even the full national team struggled against in the Asian Cup. It won’t be easy to win.

 

If they lose here, they will have to compete in the third-place play-off, but if they finish fourth, they will enter the playoff against African teams. Japan has no experience in playoff matches, making it an unknown challenge. They must somehow defend their position within the top three.

 

“There is pressure, but overcoming pressure is what takes you to the next stage, the next phase. I think the players are aware of that, but to become a strong team, we have to walk that path,” said newly appointed JFA President Tsuyoshi Miyamoto (47) at the end of March. However, if Japan fails to qualify for the Olympics, it could be a significant blow to Japanese football, affecting future tournaments like the 2026 North American World Cup. Coach Oiwa and the players need to give their all. Especially players like Hosoya, who is the ace, and Fujita, who has experience with the A team, are required to lead the team strongly.

 

There are no big stars known throughout Japan in Oiwa Japan. However, if they can show remarkable progress here, public perception will change. How many individuals will emerge with the determination to overturn low evaluations remains to be seen. Now is the time for the ambition and energy of the youth to be fully displayed without regrets.