China’s Cunning Warfare Tactics Unveiled: Blockade in East China Sea and Taiwan’s Territorial War

The election was a great success, with rallies of up to 100,000 people. Local opinion polls showed that more than 60% of the people were opposed to unification with China.

Kota Takaguchi, a journalist who covered the January 13 presidential election in Taiwan, said, “The winner of the election was the “Liberal Democrats,” who have been in power since the end of the Meiji Era (1868-1912).

The winner was Lai Ching-tok, 64, of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which rejects unification with China, appealing to “maintain liberal democracy forever. This is the first time since the country’s democratization that the same party has governed for three consecutive terms. At the same time, he is at odds with President Xi Jinping (70), who insists on “one China,” and there is a danger that tensions in Taiwan-China relations will increase. Mr. Takaguchi explains.

China has long stopped importing pineapples, a Taiwanese specialty. China has been increasing pressure on Taiwan, including suspending some tariff preferences for petrochemicals and other products under the free trade agreement. With Lai’s election, China will step up its military, economic, and diplomatic pressure.”

Russia’s Failure Leads to Change of Policy

On the 14th, the day after Taiwan’s presidential election, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi provoked a “complete unification” of the two countries, and a Sino-Taiwanian clash in 2024 is becoming a reality. If a Taiwan contingency were to occur, what measures would China take? Kenji Minemura, a senior fellow at the Canon Institute for Global Studies and an expert on Sino-Taiwanian affairs, offers his perspective.

After reading internal Chinese documents for more than a decade, I used to envision a scenario like this: the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would launch a cyber-attack or attack Taiwan. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army destroys Taiwan’s military facilities and infrastructure through cyber attacks and missiles. Special forces infiltrated in advance would assassinate key cabinet members and others in a “beheading operation” to annex Taiwan. ……

However, I believe this strategy has changed course. Similarly, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to use “Operation Beheading” in Ukraine as a short term strategy failed due to the intervention of the United States and the United Kingdom, and the war became a quagmire.

A hint for the new strategy can be found in “China’s Dream of Becoming a Military Power,” a book published by Colonel Liu Mingfu, a senior professor at China’s National Defense University. The book describes a cunning war to “crush the hearts and minds of the enemy. Mr. Minemura, who is also the translator of the book, describes a new scenario.

First, China will further strengthen its insistence on the “one-China” principle in its laws. It will upgrade the “Anti-Division of States Law” it created in 2005 and enact the “National Unification Law. The “One China” principle will be made an established fact, and foreign vessels passing through Taiwan’s territorial waters will be subject to on-site inspections.

Furthermore, they will conduct special military exercises from the East China Sea to the Bashi Strait (the strait between Taiwan and the Philippines) and virtually “blockade” Taiwan by laying mines. Taiwan will protest vigorously, but the websites of various organizations will be cyber-attacked and their messages will be falsified to say that they are in favor of national reunification.

The Chinese “blockade” will threaten the lives of the Taiwanese people. It is a “war on food,” he said.

We have only about 14 days’ worth of liquefied natural gas, which accounts for about 30% of our power generation. The oil reserves are enough for about 90 days. The self-sufficiency rate for food is also around 30%, and if the Chinese ‘blockade’ is prolonged, life will soon come to a standstill. The Taiwanese authorities will have no choice but to agree to dialogue with China toward unification.

The U.S. military, which supports Taiwan, will not be able to easily get their hands on the island. Mr. Minemura continues.

China’s actions are only law enforcement within its territorial waters, and if the U.S. takes military action, it will be considered a ‘pre-emptive strike.

Japan is no stranger to this.

If the U.S. military were to engage in war against China, U.S. bases in Japan would become important bases. However, prior consultation with the Japanese government is required before the U.S. military can launch military operations from U.S. bases in Japan. If talks are held, China will hold Japanese nationals in Japan one after another as “hostages” and exert pressure on them.

If that happens, how will the Japanese government respond? …… 90% of Japan’s maritime distribution goes through the Bashi Strait. The economic damage caused by a ‘blockade’ would be huge. It is realistic to expect that China will not actually take action until after the U.S. presidential election in 2013.

China is steadily preparing for a “cunning new type of war” that will put pressure on Japan, the United States, and Taiwan.

From the February 2 and 9, 2024 issues of FRIDAY