Don’t be fooled by the new NISA… “Ordinary people should pay off their debts first,” explains an economic journalist.

U.S. Economy Slows, Japan’s Real Wages Negative…’24 Difficult to make investment decisions in 2012 A Year of Difficult Investment Decisions

What will happen to the domestic and international economies in 2012? According to economist Sakai, the world economy will be driven by the U.S. and China, with China’s economy undergoing a prolonged adjustment due to the bursting of its real estate bubble. As for the U.S. on the other hand, Sakai sees the following.

”24 In the first half of 2012, the U.S. economy will slow down, which will be negative for stock prices, but after that, a policy rate cut is in sight, which may be positive for stock prices,” says Mr. Sakai.

In the U.S., consumption is slowing and inflation is also slowing. The labor shortage is also a supply-side constraint that is being resolved as women and immigrants enter the labor market.

What will happen to Japan’s economy? He said that the government strongly expects companies to raise wages in the ’24 Spring Struggle, which could be higher than the previous year’s increase.

Sakai points out that there is a worsening labor shortage, strong corporate earnings, especially in export industries, and a social atmosphere that seems to compel companies to raise wages. He believes that the BOJ may lift the “negative interest rate” on some deposits made by financial institutions with the BOJ at the same time it confirms the status of wage increases in the spring labor struggle.

Meanwhile, Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) has been negative in the July-September period due to sluggish consumer spending.

Sakai says, “The real economy is weak. Real wages, after subtracting price hikes, have remained negative, and he expects real wages to turn positive only in the second half of 2012.

Based on this view, Sakai expects the Japanese stock market to decline in the first half of 2012 and recover in the second half.

Sakai’s view on the timing of the general public starting to invest at this time is as follows: “Japanese people generally do not invest in the financial sector.

I wonder if Japanese people in general have sufficient financial literacy (knowledge and judgment). Unlike in the U.S., financial literacy is probably low.

The new NISA is an opportunity for people to invest, but they need to access information on their own and make sound judgments about the economic environment, financial policies, and the risks of exchange rate fluctuations,” said Mr. Ogiwara.

Mr. Ogiwara also points out that “the government has not done enough to educate people about investment,” and has only encouraged people to save money.

It is not a bad thing for those who can afford to invest. Investing is one’s own responsibility, and not all good deals come to those who invest. Knowledge and good judgment are necessary, and the timing of investment is also important. If you want to invest, you should study and gather information and judge the timing of your investment, rather than just focusing on the start of the new NISA.