The message of “How to Lie with Statistics,” a book you should read now that you are bombarded with corroborative information that “the numbers are deceiving.

＜Three years have passed since the new Corona took the world by storm. Everyday things have changed. And every day, a lot of medical information about the spread of infection, vaccination, and prevention methods are explained “statistically”. But…is this “information” and “statistics” really worth believing?

Koshiro Owaki, who works in the medical field as a doctor, reads domestic and international papers, and continues to publish them, reads “How to Lie with Statistics. Mr. Owaki introduces a book that is a must-read for the year 2023.

The trap of “statistics” numbers “created” by the COVID-19 crisis

Amidst all the talk about coronas, dementia, health checkups, good food for your body, and many other health topics, one thing that shows up everywhere is statistics. When we are told that “the number of people infected today has increased XX times compared to last week,” or that “the number of dementia patients continues to increase year after year to XX million,” or that “one in XX people will develop XX disease in their lifetime,” the numbers seem real and the problem seems to be imminent.

However, the numbers seem to be suspect. We often hear such stories. In the past three years or so, the figures related to Corona have completely disappeared from the spotlight. Most of the numbers that appear on TV or in newspapers can be made to look bigger or smaller with a little work.

So, how can we detect lies in numbers?　Probability and statistics appear in elementary and junior high school math and arithmetic, but they are difficult to remember even as an adult, and it is difficult to study them again. This may be the reason why a book titled “How to Lie with Statistics,” which was published in Japan in 1968 (original in 1954), has been read for more than 50 years.

What a famous book written more than 50 years ago can teach us

This book is written as an enjoyable read for the average family, and in it, the author explains how to read numbers in an easy-to-understand way that is still relevant today. The author is not a scholar, but a writer with experience editing magazines for the general public. The book is a collection of short stories that explain what you need to be aware of about statistics, one by one, using simple examples such as household income and presidential elections. Some of the stories are seemingly bizarre, such as “Everyone should wear lice because lice are the source of good health.

For example, at the beginning of the first chapter, there is a quote from a magazine that says, “The average annual income of Yale graduates in the class of 1924 was $25,111. One wonders how much $20,000 was then equivalent to today, but reading it out of context, it seems to be quite rich. It may seem stressful to compensate for these differences in time and read.

But that is why you will discover that what they are doing is the same as they have been doing for 50 years. The Yale example is explained by the fact that people who respond to annual income surveys are biased toward those with high incomes, for example. Nowadays, for example, the number of Sankei Shimbun readers might be small among those who cooperate with the Asahi Shimbun survey, or the influence of YouTubers might be overestimated in online opinion polls. The wording of the magazine article in Chapter 3, “Westinghouse invents new hardening agent that triples the hardness of iron,” is similar to the headline “XX University discovers substance involved in mechanism of XX disease, expects new drug,” which is still spread on SNS every day. This book is very helpful in understanding how we should feel when we see the same pattern of mistakes (or, if the same mistakes are repeated for 50 years by professional news reporters who are constantly being pointed out, we might say that it is intentional).

Exposing the “Lies of Statistics.”

……, but unfortunately, times have changed. The misleading graphs in Chapters 5 and 6 are more varied, more highly developed, and are making the news. Chapter 7, “Even if we can’t prove that your wonder drug works against colds, we can publish in large print a solid research report showing that half an ounce of the drug kills 31,108 bacteria in a test tube in 11 seconds,” has also become a common sight in the past three years or so, just as it has in the past three years. It is just like the spectacle we have seen so many times over the past three years, but when it is explained to us that “the amount of virus expelled is reduced, so it is thought to reduce the risk of infecting others” or “antibody titers have increased, so immunity is enhanced,” it takes a lot of confidence to point out that “that’s not the point. It takes a lot of confidence to point out, “That’s not the point.

The statistical lies described in this book are known in technical terms as “sampling bias,” “confounding,” and “proxy outcomes,” and are well known among people who use statistics in their daily lives. However, it is not always the case that those who are familiar with such terms do not misread the data. That is how difficult it is to discern today’s statistics. Chapter 10, the book’s conclusion, is entitled “Five Keys to Detecting Statistical Lies,” but even these keys are now rusty and impossible to turn. If we speak of conflicts of interest, we are laughed at as conspiracy theories. If we question the quality of the evidence, we are bombarded with jargon.

How to live a life without being deceived

Throughout the book, I can’t help but think, “There was an idyllic time when there were only lies of this magnitude. If you want to deal with modern statistics, this book is just a primer, and you would have to try a more difficult book (such as my translation of “Bad Cancer Treatment”) to compete with it.

However, does everyone have to study such a difficult subject?

Let me change the idea a little. The key to a deception-free life is to be a little deceived. The idea that “I will never be deceived by anyone, and I will live my life on the path of truth” is not realistic. No one, scholar or otherwise, is foolproof. Rather, the idea of “seeing through the lies” is akin to a conspiracy theory. The government and the media are hiding the truth,” is a phrase that is always uttered by those who advocate a ton of conspiracy theories. To avoid this, we need to be able to “believe in a lie, even though it may be a lie, and change our attitude quickly and flexibly when we find out that it is a lie. In other words, you need to hedge your risk so that even if you are deceived, the damage will be minimal.

Be “inconsistent” and “vigilant.

For example, among vaccines for new coronaviruses, I do not have much confidence in the recently introduced Omicron Variant vaccine. (I won’t bore you with the details, but I have read and compared countless English-language articles to come to this conclusion.) (I have read and compared countless English-language papers to come to this conclusion.) Nevertheless, I took the vaccine. (I have read countless English-language papers to come to this conclusion.) Nevertheless, I took the chance on this vaccine because I thought that even if the effects were small, they would not be meaningless, and even if there were serious side effects, I was unlikely to encounter them. And because I may be wrong, I am careful not to force others to take it or, conversely, to advise them not to take it. It may seem inconsistent, but this is fine. Because a one-sided attitude is risky.

So I can say this. The Statistics Lie to You” is a book that you should read now. And, if you don’t dare to touch the higher level books, and remember to be alert to the fact that there are many more sophisticated lies in the world, you may be the closest to “how to live without being deceived.

Are you now unsure whether you should read the book or not?　Think about that for yourself. Think for yourself, without throwing your conclusions to others. Use your knowledge, skills, and common sense to do so. This is the most important message of “How to Lie with Statistics.

Statistics de Uso de Tsukuru Hoho: An Introduction to Statistics without Formulas ( Blue Backs)” by Darrell Huff, translated by Shugen Takagi (1968, Kodansha)

Koshiro Owaki: Born in Osaka in 1983. Graduated from the University of Tokyo Faculty of Medicine. In 2020, he made a big impact in the “health industry” with his first book, “Health to Life: The Latest Medicine and 12 Superstitions,” which was published by Kodansha in 1968. In March 2022, he will publish “Exercise and Salt Reduction: Stop Now! and “Don’t Leave it to the Doctor” in March 2022. His translations include “Bad Cancer Treatment. He is a father of a child.