Missile lands in Poland, killing two! Four Possible Possibilities

On November 15, two missiles landed in the eastern Polish town of Przewodow, near the border with Ukraine, killing two people. This is the first time that missiles have been sent to Poland.

As of the time of writing (12:00 JST on August 16), the details of the “identity” of these missiles are still unknown.

Russia attacks NATO? This was a shocking development.

At first, many believed that Russia was behind the attack, and there was a great deal of tension in the international community, wondering if the war had finally ignited in Poland, a NATO member country. Images transmitted from the site revealed that the fired missile wreckage was most likely from a Russian-made S-300 air defense system.

The S-300 is also possessed by the Ukrainian military and is often used to intercept missile attacks by Russian forces. Therefore, it is possible that the interceptor missile fired by the Ukrainian military in an attempt to shoot down a Russian missile attack on western Ukraine may have malfunctioned and landed on Polish territory.

However, the Russian military also possesses S-300 missiles. Since the Russian military consumed a considerable number of ballistic and cruise missiles in the course of its attack on Ukraine (due to a shortage of missiles), it is also using S-300 missiles, which are originally used for air defense operations, for ground attacks. The range is delicate, but it is not impossible to reach them if launched from southwest Belarus.

Four Missile “Possibilities”

Because of these factors, the identity of the missile is still unknown. The possibilities are.

(1) Russian forces intentionally attack Polish territory

(2) Russian forces fired by mistake

(3) A Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile that failed to intercept the Russian missile drifted and landed on the Polish territory

(4) Both Russian and Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles landed (only one of the two landing missiles may have been an S-300).

There are several possibilities, including the following.

The Polish authorities, which have radar information constantly monitoring the airspace above the border and are also investigating residuals at the site of the missile impact, are expected to announce the results of their investigation in due course. As of this writing, the Polish authorities are maintaining a cautious stance, and have not yet mentioned either of them.

Of course, Ukrainian President Zelensky has declared that the attack was carried out by Russia, and the Russian side has denied it, but the announcements by the parties involved are not very helpful.

However, in addition to the missiles that landed on Polish territory, the Russian military attacked civilian infrastructure facilities all over Ukraine with more than 100 missiles on the same day. The Russian military, which announced its withdrawal from the southern provincial capital of Cherson on November 11, is in the midst of a humiliating “defeat,” but it seems to have launched a large-scale missile attack as if to cover it up.

Putin Has No Intention of Ceasefire

There are indications that Russia called on the Ukrainian side to negotiate a ceasefire in withdrawing from Herson, but “President Putin alone” decides Russia’s policy. As long as President Putin, who often announces his policy in his own words, does not clearly state it, there is no realistic prospect that the Russian side will change to a more conciliatory stance.

Although the U.S.-Russian dialogue channel for averting nuclear war is alive and well, with the heads of the U.S. and Russian intelligence agencies meeting in Turkey on March 14, President Putin has not changed his hard-line stance of pressing Ukraine to surrender. President Putin has continued to reign with his self-produced image of an “uncompromising leader,” and there are no signs that he will deviate from this image in the future.

This time, these large-scale missile attacks were carried out just as Foreign Minister Lavrov was on his way home from a G20 meeting in Indonesia. This event symbolizes the essence of the Putin administration’s policy of force rather than dialogue.

Avoiding “World War

Regardless of which missile landed in Poland, it is certain that the Russian military will continue to carry out large-scale missile attacks, and there is always the possibility that a malfunction or other malfunction will eventually send a missile into Poland.

Such activities by Russia require Ukraine’s supporters to be even more vigilant. There were concerns that a significant increase in the number of seats held by former President Trump’s Republican Party, which is critical of President Biden’s foreign policy, would have a negative impact on support for Ukraine.

In response to this situation, Poland announced that “it is extremely likely that Article IV will be invoked at the NATO meeting on the 16th. This is because there is a possibility that the missile may have been a Russian missile, but Article 4 will only be discussed. This is in sharp contrast to Article 5, which stipulates very strong measures, such as “an attack on all parties,” and “action deemed necessary, including the use of military force.

Nevertheless, a swift show of NATO unity is very important to put pressure on Russia. The Putin regime will surely take advantage of any sign of weakness by its opponents, and NATO and other supporters of Ukraine must remain bullish anyway and continue to step up their support for Ukraine.