Dictator Xi Jinping’s X-Day Move to Unify Taiwan by Force

It was a symbolic scene.

The closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 22. Hu Jintao, the former general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), was asked to leave the venue by a staff member. Hu is said to be opposed to the concentration of power in the hands of Xi Jinping, who broke with the customary rule of two terms of up to 10 years and entered an unprecedented third term. This performance can be seen as a blatant exclusion. Takushoku University professor Satoshi Tomisaka, an expert on the situation in China, says, “The Supreme Leader has been very reluctant to remove Hu and his family from the leadership.

The Supreme Leader is leaving in place a man with a sense of balance, such as Premier Li Keqiang, a graduate of the Chinese Communist Youth League, the same elite training organization as Mr. Hu. Mr. Xi is now surrounded by his close associates, and there is no one left to act as a brake. This could lead to a more autocratic Mr. Xi running amok. He will suppress speech and purge intellectuals and wealthy people who oppose him. …… He is willing to play politics of fear in order to develop China and make his name in history.

Mr. Xi is said to be using Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been at the center of power for more than 20 years, as a model for his leadership image. Putin, too, is surrounded by yes-men and has run amok. No one was able to stop him from invading Ukraine. One of Mr. Xi’s concerns is the “armed unification of Taiwan.

When Pelosi visited Taiwan in August of this year, Prime Minister Lee admonished Xi, saying, “There is no need to take extreme military action. But Mr. Xi ignored him. In retaliation, the largest military exercise in history was conducted in the waters near Taiwan. In his October 16 report on the activities of the Communist Party Congress, Mr. Xi stressed that he would “never renounce” the use of force against Taiwan, and the party constitution adopted on October 22 clearly stated that he would “firmly oppose and suppress Taiwan’s independence.

The renewal of the Chinese leadership has also changed the top leadership of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). A cadre from the southeastern province of Fujian, which confronts Taiwan militarily, and the man who led a major military exercise in August were selected for the post. Tensions between China and Taiwan have risen dramatically. Chinese journalist Laiyu Zhou explains.

Until now, China has considered the unification of Taiwan in three stages. The first is peaceful unification through dialogue and other means. The second is unification through pressure, such as the blockade of the sea area. The final stage is unification through the use of force.

With Xi’s hardening of his stance, the “X-Day” when the final measure will be implemented is likely to materialize quickly. The most likely time frame is the year of two important elections: the presidential election in Taiwan and the U.S. presidential election. Military journalist Fumitaro Kuroi said, “I thought, ‘It will be a long time from now.

The U.S. government, which had predicted that the invasion would take place a long time ago, has recently been releasing information that China will invade Taiwan in 2012. Perhaps they have obtained highly accurate inside information from China. They may invade at once using naval vessels, bombers, and paratroopers, and there may even be a limited clash with the US. If this happens, Japan cannot be a stranger to the situation. U.S. military bases in Okinawa and Kyushu would become targets of missile attacks.

The crisis of conflict in East Asia involving Japan, the United States, and Taiwan is becoming more realistic by the day.

From the November 11, 2022 issue of FRIDAY