Does CDP really want to be the ruling party…? I asked Senator Ogawa about it.

Badmouthing the ruling party is not enough…

After the announcement of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s resignation, the government of Fumio Kishida was inaugurated after the election of the LDP president, and after the dissolution of the House of Representatives on October 14, the general election is just around the corner with a hectic schedule of public announcement on October 19 and casting of votes on October 31.

However, even though the LDP’s approval rating has dropped due to the unpopularity of the Corona measures, the opposition’s approval rating has not risen at all. Even among the supporters of the opposition parties, there are many who are asking, “Are they serious about changing the government? (……).

I asked an honest question to Junya Ogawa, a member of the Rikken Democratic Party who is the subject of Arata Oshima’s film Why Can’t You Be Prime Minister and who is challenging Takuya Hirai, the LDP’s former minister of state for digital affairs, in Kagawa’s first district.

“There are many people who have doubts, concerns, and dissatisfaction with the politics since the Abe administration, and I am greatly encouraged and grateful that there are so many people who want to somehow look forward to the opposition.

But at the same time, the number of people who clearly support the opposition parties is probably up to 30% at present, and unless that number eventually exceeds 50%, we won’t be able to govern.

What do you mean by “opposition supporters thinking together”?

What do you mean by “opposition supporters thinking together”?　What do you think of the general election? At that time, I asked Ogawa-san, “Were you a little grumpy? I was told by a viewer afterwards.

I think it was partly because I was tired, but I’ve always had a dilemma: I don’t think we can break through the situation just by having opposition party supporters get together and badmouth the ruling party.

I think that the current opposition parties are well recognized as a critical force, but they need to become a governing force. For example, before the formation of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) administration (2009), the DPJ’s support rate was close to 20% to 30%, and even among proportional voting voters, it was over 40%.

Even if you look at the world’s two major party systems, the U.S. and the U.K., if support for the ruling party is let’s say 40%, the opposition party has about 30%.

However, looking at the current situation in Japan, the support for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is around 40%, and even the Constitutional Democratic Party, the number one opposition party, is around 5%. After gathering all the opposition parties together, it finally exceeds 10%.

This is a bit extreme, but I sometimes think that if everyone from the KMT to the Communist Party could merge and create a huge centrist liberal party in this country, we could create an opposition party that could seriously compete with the LDP.

While this is only an ideal, the reality is that there is a lot of confusion, especially after Taro Yamamoto, a member of the New Frontier Party, announced his intention to run for the Tokyo 8th district and then gave up.

“I think we have to accept the criticism that says, ‘Are you serious about coming to power? What scares me is that the opposition parties are getting used to being in opposition. For example, even if they don’t win power, if they think for even a moment that it’s enough to protect their own seats and positions, they won’t be able to compete.

In order for the current opposition parties to be recognized as a force to be reckoned with, they must first exude an overflowing attitude of selflessness in the true sense of the word. Furthermore, it is also important to send a message of how you reflect on what happened when you were actually in power, how you summarize it, and how you will apply it in the future. If the message is not sincere and convincing, I don’t think the number of voters who want to entrust the government again will increase.

I think there are many people who don’t like the current LDP, but have given up on the idea that they have no other choice.

Therefore, I think it will be very difficult for the opposition parties to be recognized as a governing force unless they have the following three elements in place: a selfless stance, a reflection on and summary of their time in power, and a policy system tailored to the new era. If all the parties really take a selfless stance, then naturally we can see the opposition parties uniting as one.

What is the feasibility and reality of the government’s promises?

This raises the question of whether the current ruling party has the power to do so.

“If the ruling party loses its majority in the general election, Kan and Kishida will surely step down.

If the ruling party loses its majority in the general election, Kan and Kishida will surely step down. The leaders of the opposition parties, on the other hand, may need to have the determination to step down if they do not win a majority. I feel that there is a determination, a perspective, and a state of affairs that can be seen only when one decides to step down.

In any case, if we are too busy protecting our own positions and seats in the Diet, the people will surely see through us.

The Rikken DPJ has made a variety of promises this time, including exemption from income tax for those with annual incomes of 10 million yen or less, lowering the consumption tax to 5%, policies on gender and housing issues, and halving tuition at public universities. However, many people may wonder, “Can he really do that?

“I think it’s a necessary policy, but the process of discussion needs to be more substantial.

Originally, I think the government’s pledges for the general election should be thoroughly discussed with the people over a period of two to three years, and created together with the people. If the process and background are not sufficient, it will inevitably be seen as something that has been taken for granted. We need to make the people feel that this pledge is theirs. We need to make sure that it is not taken as a matter of feasibility, reality, heat, or temperature, and that it is never taken as nihilistic.

Nowadays, due to the Corona disaster, the number of people who feel close to politics is definitely increasing. As might be expected, voter turnout is likely to rise in this general election, but Ogawa is not so sure about that either.

“The only two general elections in recent years in which voter turnout has been close to 70% were the postal dissolution in 2005 and the change of government in 2009. Good or bad, there was a lot of enthusiasm for general elections. However, the turnout for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election held under the current emergency was 43%. and 49% for the Yokohama mayoral election. I am not optimistic about the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections, as both the voting trends and turnout are said to predict the next national elections.

Moreover, I have a feeling that many people still think that the LDP is a safer choice than entrusting the government to the opposition parties, as a reluctant choice at this point.

So what is the difference between the last time the DPJ came to power and the current situation?

“Now I think that the trio of Ichiro Ozawa, Naoto Kan, and Yukio Hatoyama had a system that appealed to a wide range of people, from conservatives to liberals. If the base does not expand, Mt. Fuji will not grow high unless the base is broadened. Although various problems were exposed later, the system was still appealing at the initial level of expectation.

The current leadership system also needs to keep expanding its wings. On top of that, we have to respond to the voices of those who say, ‘You couldn’t control them well during the Democratic Party of Japan administration. In a double sense, we have to think about expanding the opposition’s support from the 30 percent of its bedrock supporters.

At least…

When I hear that, I even get the impression that it’s over before the general election even starts. …… When I asked him if there was any part of him that didn’t really think he could win power, Ogawa said, “Severe self-awareness is also necessary.

This is something I want both opposition party members and opposition party supporters to think about together,” he said.

But for example, Mr. Kishida, who is probably aware of the need to break away from the Abe/San line, has not reexamined the falsification of official documents, nor has he even withdrawn his refusal to be appointed to the Academic Council. That is why we, the opposition, must eventually come to power and correct these problems.

At the same time, however, we need to have a serious self-awareness about whether we are in a situation where we can be confident of a change of government right now. In fact, I feel that this will give the people a sense of security. I think it is also important to send a message that we are people who can look at ourselves objectively and coolly.

The worst thing to do is to shift the blame to the media or to the people, saying that the media is responsible for the lack of support for the opposition parties or that the people are not mature enough. In the end, nothing will change.

The resignation that “nothing will change in the end” has led to a decline in voter turnout, which in turn has led to the current situation. So how will the opposition parties fight the general election?

Mr. Kishiro Nakamura said, “Even if we call for an immediate change of government now, we won’t be able to say so right away,” and “For the time being, the ruling and opposition parties are evenly matched. If you’re arguing that the Diet would be more tense and healthy if the ruling and opposition parties were more evenly matched, there’s a chance that the 30% of the middle class would agree with you.

On the other hand, the 30% of Mr. Abe’s rock-solid supporters will probably say, ‘There’s no need for that,’ no matter what the situation is. I think that’s fine.

While we, the opposition parties, should be grateful to the 30% of the rock-solid supporters, we should not take advantage of them, and we should always consider how the 30% of the middle class, who may or may not go to the polls, will perceive the situation.

In countries such as New Zealand and Australia, where the voter turnout is high and the ruling and opposition parties are evenly matched, corona measures have been relatively successful. In such a situation, the ruling party cannot sit on its laurels even if it is in power, so it has to be humble and try its best to listen to the thoughts of the people. As a result, sincere policies and words are born from this.

In the case of Japan, the voter turnout is low and there is a vast difference in the power of the ruling and opposition parties, so there is a tendency for politics such as the Olympics and the GoTo campaign to run in the interests of the administration.

The first thing that should be the minimum goal is to have the ruling and opposition parties on the same page, and the basis for this is a high voter turnout. As a result, I think it is very important to create a tense political situation and to create a politics that is close to the people in terms of both policies and words.