Three Scenarios for the “End of the War” Brought about by the Latest Weapons in Ukraine
Six months have passed since the invasion of Ukraine on August 24, 2011. The latest missile and drone weapons have been used to bomb Russian military facilities in the Crimean Peninsula, and the center of the fighting has shifted to the south, including the intensifying conflict over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Six months have passed since the Russian military invaded Ukraine. Fighting continues, and on the Ukrainian side, a total of 14,500 soldiers and civilians have died. On the Russian side, about 15,000 soldiers alone have been killed and more than 45,000 wounded. On the Russian side, about 15,000 soldiers alone were killed and more than 45,000 injured.
The largest loss of life by the Russian military since World War II is said to be the war in Afghanistan, where 15,000 soldiers were killed over a period of 10 years. The latest invasion of Ukraine is said to have resulted in the deaths of more than 40,500 people. In the current invasion of Ukraine, the number of casualties is on par with Afghanistan in just six months. Meanwhile, each industry in war-torn Ukraine has been severely affected. In particular, agriculture has suffered tremendous damage, with the harvest rate decreasing by 40-50%,” said a reporter from the Moscow bureau of a national newspaper.
Around August, the war entered a new phase. The main battlefield shifted from the east to the south. Ukraine is said to have launched a military operation to retake the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which had been occupied by Russian forces. In addition, the offensive against the Crimean Peninsula is in full swing: on the 9th, an explosion occurred at the Saki air base, killing and wounding approximately 160 Russian soldiers, and on the 20th, the Russian Black Sea Fleet was bombed in the military port city of Sevastopol.
Ukraine is now stepping up its offensive, and in the background is the existence of state-of-the-art weaponry. Military commentator Masaki Takabe explains.
Ukraine aims to cut off logistical support by attacking Crimea, which is a supply base for Russian troops. The latest weapons reportedly supplied by Western countries are being used for this purpose. The main weapon is the “Hymers,” the latest rocket launch system. Its greatest feature is mobility. It can be ready for launch within minutes of arriving at its destination. The Russians have well-developed radar and can quickly pinpoint the location of an attack, but thanks to this high-performance battery, the Ukrainians are able to launch attacks from anywhere.
Another guided missile, “ATACMS,” separates into 6 to 13 small bombs after launch. All of them automatically attack their targets. Although no official announcement has been made, these missiles are said to be the ones bombing Crimea. The latest model in the “AGM” series, “HARM,” is dedicated to radar attack. It automatically detects, tracks, and destroys the device.
Drone weapons are also being considered for use in the field.
The “Grey Eagle,” the most powerful drone available, can carry up to four missiles weighing up to 50 kg and can fly for up to 40 hours. Together with the ‘Phoenix Ghost,’ which is already in use, we are waiting for its operation,” said Takabe.
Meanwhile, Russia is showing new developments in the lands under its control. In the east, the “Mariupol Master Plan” is underway to rebuild the city within three years to match the Russian climate, and Russian-style education is scheduled to be introduced in September.
I think there will be a referendum, just as there was when the Crimean Peninsula was illegally declared annexed,” he said. Russia will then claim the attack on the region as an attack on its own country. If that happens, the possibility of more radical military action will increase,” said military journalist Fumitaro Kuroi.
Smoldering Possibility of Nuclear Contamination
Nevertheless, it is also true that both countries’ national power is exhausted, and anti-war sentiment is growing among the people of both countries. There is a movement toward the end of the war, and three scenarios can be envisioned. The first possibility is an end to the war through peace negotiations. International journalist Toshihiro Yamada explains.
In addition to the fact that neither country is in a position to continue the war for much longer, the Western powers are also hoping for an early settlement. European countries are concerned about energy shortages in the winter, and in the United States, where inflation has not stopped, criticism of the war as a contributing factor is growing. Regarding Putin, who has even been the subject of critical illness rumors, CIA Director Burns recently said, ‘He’s in too good health,’ probably to remind us that he is in a condition to negotiate a peace deal.
The focus is on the territorial issue. I think that Russia’s bottom line is to effectively withdraw from all areas except Donetsk and Lugansk, which are effectively controlled by pro-Russian forces, but whether or not Ukraine will accept this. But I think it will be settled by the end of the year at the latest.
The second scenario is the collapse of Putin’s regime through a coup d’état within Russia.
On the 20th of this month, the daughter of Putin’s brain, Alexander Dugin, was assassinated. Ukraine denies any involvement, and it is said to be the work of anti-Putin forces in the country. Public discontent has reached a peak to the extent that a close aide within his inner circle is being targeted. It could explode at any time,” said Itsuro Nakamura, professor emeritus at Tsukuba University and an expert on the situation in Russia.
On the other hand, the coup d’état also carries the danger of heading toward the worst possible outcome. In order to protect his position of power, Putin may choose a “third way” that would involve all of Europe.
It is nuclear contamination from the bombing of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Putin may attack the plant under the guise of an attack by Ukraine. If the monsoon hits, the contaminated material could be spread across Europe, as far away as Germany,” Nakamura said.
Which scenario will be followed by Ukraine and Russia? What the people of both countries want, without a doubt, is to return to normalcy.
Above: Before bombing Bottom: After bombing
Satellite images of the Saki Air Base before and after the bombing. Only the aircraft in the dotted line were pinpointed and destroyed by the latest weapons.
High Mobility Rocket Cannon System
Equipped with six rockets capable of precision-guided bombing. Since its introduction in June, it has successfully destroyed more than 20 locations, including command posts.
If radar can be destroyed, combat using aircraft becomes possible. It is expected to be the trump card that will revolutionize the war situation.
The latest model of automatic tracking type. Although the U.S. has not declared its provision, combat traces point to its introduction.
Large military drone
Drones are awaiting introduction to the front lines. In addition to its high performance, it is also attracting attention for its price of $21 million (approx. 2.8 billion yen) per unit.
From the September 9, 2022 issue of FRIDAY