No way out of the ceasefire: …… Israel x Hamas Will the hell that killed 14,500 children continue?

Bereaved families mourn the small bodies of those who lost their lives in the Israeli attacks with sorrowful expressions. Such scenes have become commonplace in the Palestinian territory of Gaza.

On April 7, on the six-month anniversary of the start of the fighting between Israel and Hamas, the Israeli army withdrew from southern Gaza, leaving only a small part of the territory behind. The total casualties so far on both sides are more than 34,000 (as of April 8), 14,500 of whom are children. International journalist Toshihiro Yamada believes that “the fighting will continue.

Israel’s decision to withdraw its troops was probably made with an eye toward future strategy. Initially, there was information that senior Hamas leaders were fleeing to the south, and the objective was to detain them there, but this was not accomplished. That is why we are temporarily withdrawing our forces and reorganizing our operations.”

There is no way out of the situation toward a ceasefire. Aiko Nishikida, a professor at Keio University who specializes in Middle East politics, explains.

“Under pressure from public opinion, the Israeli government is putting the release of the hostages first in negotiations. The Hamas side, on the other hand, is believed to be setting conditions for a ceasefire, such as ‘a permanent ceasefire,’ ‘withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza,’ and ‘exchange of prisoners and hostages. For the Hamas side, there is no point in starting a war with Israel if all they want to do is return Gaza to the situation it was in before the war started. There is a possibility that Hamas is separately presenting conditions for the post-war administration of Gaza under the table that Israel is reluctant to accept. This may be the bottleneck that is holding up negotiations.”

There are also circumstances where Hamas is not willing to actively negotiate a ceasefire.

For Hamas officials, the situation is not so bad,” said Mr. Moshe. The senior Hamas members are hiding in Qatar and Lebanon, and their lives are not under threat. The fact that the attack on Gaza has drawn worldwide sympathy for Palestine is rather convenient for them as they seek recognition of Palestinian statehood.

Instead of a cease-fire, the war has become a quagmire involving other countries. On April 1, Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria, prompting Iran to issue a statement saying that Israeli embassies in other countries “are no longer safe.

It is highly likely that Israel will retaliate at a time when the Israelis have lost their guard, and within a month, Israeli embassies in Europe will be on low alert, which is dangerous.

If the war drags on, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November could have a major impact on the war situation. If former President Trump, who ignored protests from Middle Eastern countries and recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, were to be re-elected, there is a risk that Israel would resort to even more hard-line measures.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a plan to receive stronger logistical support from the U.S. if Trump is re-elected. The U.S., which wants to have a military base as a non-Muslim country in the middle of the Middle East, also wants to maintain its relationship with Israel. A scenario in which Israel, after Trump’s election, would essentially take away Palestinian autonomy based on its military occupation of Gaza is also conceivable,” said Nishikida.

On April 8, Israel issued a statement saying, “The schedule for the invasion of Rafah (in southern Gaza) has been set. In the event of a ground invasion, it is inevitable that thousands of people will be killed.

There is no end in sight to the hell in which political gamesmanship is more important than human lives, and the lives of innocent civilians continue to be taken.

From the April 26, 2024 issue of FRIDAY