Toshihiro Nikai Former Secretary-General Strategizes Hereditary Succession Behind the Scenes

Father is fine. Our village is united.

This is reportedly how Ryota Takeda, 56, former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, responded to concerns about Toshihiro Nikai, 85, former Secretary-General of the DPJ, who has announced his intention not to run for the next lower house election.

The term “father” refers to Nikai, while “our village” refers to the Nikai faction. Even after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (66) announced the dissolution of the faction, the Nikai faction remains united behind the scenes, and Nikai is said to be in good health.

According to an investigation into the LDP faction’s slush fund for political fund parties, Nikai’s political organization has failed to report 35.26 million yen on its political fund balance sheet, the largest amount among active politicians. The former treasurer and secretary of the faction have been indicted.

The former treasurer of the faction and his secretary have been indicted. It is only natural that the political responsibility lies with myself as the person in charge of supervision.”

On March 25, Nikai apologized at party headquarters and announced that he would not run for the lower house in the next election in order to take political responsibility.

Nikai is one of the party’s most powerful figures, having served as secretary general for five years and two months, the longest tenure of any party leader in history. He was also worried about the possible punishment, so he leaked to the media that a heavier punishment was likely to be imposed on him, and by saying, “Please decide whether you will run or not before we take action,” he managed to get the Prime Minister to announce that he would not run. The party will not take action against Mr. Nikai because he has taken political responsibility. The party is not going to take any action against Nikai because he has taken political responsibility for his own actions.

The redistricting that will be applied in the next lower house election, following the “increase by 10 and decrease by 10,” will reduce the number of districts in Wakayama from three to one, with one new district for the first time and two new districts for the second time. Since Mr. Nikai had been chosen as the branch chief of the new 2nd district, the LDP Wakayama Prefectural Federation will proceed with the selection of a new branch chief.

Rumors of a “switch to the House of Representatives” by Hiroshige Seko, 61, former secretary general of the House of Councillors, have been circulated many times in the past in connection with the new 2nd Constituency.

However, due to a series of back taxes, Seko was given a “recommendation to leave the party,” the second most serious punishment under the LDP’s eight-part LDP Disciplinary Code. He will run as an independent candidate in the next election, and since he cannot run as a multiple candidate in the proportional elections, if he is defeated in his constituency, he will not be able to win back his seat, and will be eliminated from the election.

If he does not switch sides and runs for the Wakayama Upper House seat, Yukiko Amakawa, a political scientist, says that Seko “will probably win the election, albeit in a hard-fought contest.

The possibility of Seko switching to the House of Representatives has disappeared. It will take a considerable amount of time for him to regain his former power in the upper house. Mr. Nikai’s declaration of non-running while stepping down gives him a chance to push his son’s succession.”

In addition to Mr. Seko’s decision to run in the new 2nd district, there are also various speculations about whether Mr. Nikai’s eldest son, Toshiki, who serves as his public secretary, or his third son, Nobuyasu, will succeed him in the seat. Currently, Yumi Hayashi, 42, of The Japan Innovation Party, is the incumbent in Wakayama’s 1st Constituency. The LDP is seeking to regain this district with Yosuke Tsuruho, 57, former minister of Okinohoku, a member of the House of Councilors, as its branch chief in the 1st district.

Nikai’s eldest son ran for Gobo mayor in 2004, but lost miserably. His influence declined. His third son has said privately that he wants to withdraw from the race this time. Mr. Tsuruho has been chosen as the branch chief of Ward 1, so he cannot move to Ward 2. So, who will be the candidate for the new Ward 2? One possibility is to have a local councilor who has his breath taken out of him run as a “one-point relief” candidate. During his term of office, he would hold discussions with his supporters to narrow down the field to a successor. Then, at the next lower house election, he would hand over the reins to one of his sons. Rather than having him take over directly, it would be better to have a pause in the process, so that the criticism of hereditary succession is eased,” said Mr. Amakawa.

Mr. Nikai is a “up-and-coming” politician who entered national politics as a member of the Wakayama Prefectural Assembly. In 1993, he left the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and as a “close associate of Ichiro Ozawa,” he was instrumental in bringing the LDP down. He has built up a wide network of contacts in the opposition parties and in the Kasumigaseki district, and has been cunning in his dealings with them.

He has declared that he will not run for office, but his term of office remains until the next election. He is not a politician who will quietly spend the rest of his life, but has enough power left to take a dark role if Kishida’s ouster is revitalized.

Mr. Nikai was described by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as “the person with the most political skills. It would not be surprising if he is hiding a “final move” that will send tremors through Nagata-cho in the run-up to the presidential election in the fall.